Regional climate, federal land management, and the social-ecological resilience of southeastern Alaska

Abstract

Complex systems of humans and nature often experience rapid and unpredictable change that results in undesirable outcomes for both ecosystems and society. In circumpolar regions, where multiple converging drivers of change are reshaping both human and natural communities, there is uncertainty about future dynamics and the capacity to sustain the important interactions of social-ecological systems in the face of rapid change. This research addresses this uncertainty in the region of Southeast Alaska, where lessons learned from other circumpolar regions may not be applicable because of unique social and ecological conditions. Southeast Alaska contains the most productive and diverse ecosystems at high latitudes and a human population almost entirely isolated and embedded in National Forest lands; these qualities underscore the importance of the region's climate and federal management systems, respectively. This research presents a series of case studies of the drivers, dynamics, and outcomes of change in regional climate and federal management, and theoretically grounds these studies to understand the regional resilience to change. Climate change in Southeast Alaska is investigated with respect to impacts on temperate rainforest ecosystems. Findings suggest that warming is linked to emergence of declining cedar forests in the last century. Dynamics of federal management are investigated in several studies, concerning the origins and outcomes of national conservation policy, the boom-bust history of the regional timber economy, and the factors contributing to the current 'deadlock' in Tongass National Forest management. Synthesis of case study findings suggests both emergent phenomena (yellow-cedar decline) and cyclic dynamics (timber boom-bust) resulting from the convergence of ecological and social drivers of change. Adaptive responses to emergent opportunities appear constrained by inertia in management philosophies. Resilience to timber industry collapse has been variable at local scales, but overall the regional economy has experienced transition while retaining many of its key social-ecological interactions (e.g., subsistence and commercial uses of fish and wildlife). An integrated assessment of regional datasets suggests a high integrity of these interactions, but also identifies critical areas of emergent vulnerability. Overall findings are synthesized to provide policy and management recommendations for supporting regional resilience to future change.