Decadal Variability In The Arctic Ocean: Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Seas Ice-Ocean-Atmosphere Climate System

Abstract

This study investigates the decadal variability of the Arctic Ocean---Greenland, Iceland, Norwegian Seas (GIN Sea) system and possible mechanisms driving variability. The theoretical foundation of this work is the theory of Proshutinsky & Johnson [1997] that two major climate states of the Arctic---Anticyclonic Circulation Regime (ACCR) and Cyclonic Circulation Regime (CCR)---are driven by variations in the freshwater contents of the Arctic Ocean and the GIN Sea. It is hypothesized that the Arctic Ocean and the GIN Sea form an auto-oscillatory ice-ocean-atmosphere climate system with a quasi-decadal period of interannual variability. The system is characterized by two stages: (1) cold Arctic (ACCR)---warm GIN Sea with weak interaction between the basins; (2) warm Arctic (CCR)---cold GIN Sea with intense interaction between the basins. Surface air temperature and dynamic height gradients between the basins drive the auto-oscillations. This study investigates interactions between the Arctic Ocean and the GIN Sea. To test the hypothesis, a simple model of the Arctic Ocean and Greenland Sea has been developed. The Arctic shelf processes have been parameterized in a box model coupled with an Arctic Ocean module. Both the Arctic Ocean and Greenland Sea modules are coupled with a thermodynamic ice model and atmospheric models. Several model experiments have been conducted to adjust the model and to reproduce the auto-oscillatory behavior of the climate system. One of the major results of this work is the simulation of auto-oscillatory behavior of the Arctic Ocean---GIN Sea climate system. Periodical solutions obtained with seasonally varying forcing for scenarios with high and low interaction between the regions reproduce major anomalies in the ocean thermohaline structure, sea ice volume, and fresh water fluxes attributed to ACCR and CCR regimes. According to the simulation results, the characteristic time scale of the Arctic Ocean---GIN Sea system variability reproduced in the model is about 10--15 years. This outcome is consistent with theory of Proshutinsky and Johnson [1997] and shows that the Arctic Ocean---GIN Sea can be viewed as a unique auto-oscillating system.