Carbon Sequestration In Alaska's Boreal Forest: Planning For Resilience In A Changing Landscape

Abstract

Northern ecosystems and those who rely upon them are facing a time of unprecedented rapid change. Global boreal forests will play an important role in the feedback loop between climate, ecosystems, and society. In this thesis, I examine forest carbon dynamics and the potential for carbon management in Interior boreal Alaska in three distinct frameworks, then analyze my results in the context of social-ecological resilience. In Chapter 1, I analyze comparative historical trends and current regulatory frameworks governing the use and management of boreal forests in Russia, Sweden, Canada, and Alaska, and assess indicators of socio-ecological sustainability in these regions. I conclude that low population density, limited fire suppression, and restricted economic expansion in Interior Alaska have resulted in a 21st-century landscape with less compromised human-ecosystem interactions than other regions. Relative wealth and a strong regulatory framework put Alaska in a position to manage for long-term objectives such as carbon sequestration. In Chapter 2, I model the landscape-level ecological possibilities for sequestration under three different climate scenarios and associated changes in fire and forest growth. My results indicate that Interior Alaska could act as either a weak carbon source or as a weak sink in the next hundred years, and that management for carbon credits via fire suppression would be inadvisable, given the associated uncertainty and risks. In Chapter 3, I perform a social, ecological, and economic analysis of the feasibility of switching from fossil fuels to wood energy in Interior Alaska villages. I demonstrate that this is a viable option with the potential benefits of providing lower-cost power, creating local employment, reducing the risk of catastrophic wildfire near human habitation, and earning marketable carbon credits. Finally, in Chapter 4, I assess how each of the above factors may impact social-ecological resilience. My results show some system characteristics that tend to bolster resilience and others that tend to increase vulnerability. I argue that in order to reduce vulnerability, management goals for Alaska's boreal forest must be long-term, flexible, cooperative, and locally integrated.