• Login
    View Item 
    •   Home
    • University of Alaska Fairbanks
    • UAF Graduate School
    • College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences
    • View Item
    •   Home
    • University of Alaska Fairbanks
    • UAF Graduate School
    • College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences
    • View Item
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Browse

    All of Scholarworks@UACommunitiesPublication DateAuthorsTitlesSubjectsTypeThis CollectionPublication DateAuthorsTitlesSubjectsType

    My Account

    Login

    First Time Submitters, Register Here

    Register

    Statistics

    Display statistics

    Forecasting catches of Pacific salmon in commercial fisheries of southeast Alaska

    • CSV
    • RefMan
    • EndNote
    • BibTex
    • RefWorks
    Thumbnail
    Name:
    Marshall_R_1992.pdf
    Size:
    6.416Mb
    Format:
    PDF
    Download
    Author
    Marshall, Robert Paul
    Keyword
    Biostatistics
    Forestry
    Aquatic sciences
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11122/9390
    Abstract
    Data collections since 1911 and statistical methods from time series analysis are employed to forecast catches of pink, chum, coho, and sockeye salmon in Southeast Alaska. Knowledge of the spatial and temporal domains favored by Pacific salmon originating in Southeast Alaska is summarized to provide a basis for estimating environmental variation experienced by each species. Catches in northern, southern, and all of Southeast Alaska are forecast with univariate ARIMA, transfer function-noise (TFN), and vector ARMA models. Univariate models for catch in numbers and catch in weight yielded similar results for each species. Air and sea surface temperatures, freshwater discharge, and coastal upwelling enter TFN models for several species and areas. Environmental variables allow TFN models to explain a small amount of variation in the catches (average of 19%) above that explained by univariate models. Forecasts for most, but not all, species and areas are improved (average of 16%) by including environmental data in TFN models. Stock-recruit models with a parameter for density dependent mortality provide the best forecasts of pink salmon catch and are recommended for future forecasts. Winter air and sea surface temperatures enter stock-recruit models for pink salmon, and forecasts of catch and recruitment in northern and southern Southeast Alaska tend to oppose each other and cancel (1981-1985), which suggests that the salmon are caught in areas other than where they originated. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for forecasts of pink salmon catch from stock-recruit models in Southeast Alaska, based on data for 1981-1990, is estimated at 49%, with first, second, and third quartiles of 10%, 23%, and 83%, respectively. Catches of Pacific salmon in Southeast Alaska are significantly correlated and are forecast jointly with good accuracy by vector ARMA models, except when effects believed to result from density dependent mortality are present in the data. Correlations indicate that coho salmon smolts might prey on young pink salmon. Also, recruitment of pink salmon in Southeast Alaska and British Columbia is correlated; regional environmental influences might thus affect catches in both areas. In Southeast Alaska, MAPE for forecasting coho and sockeye salmon catch with time series analysis is about 20%, and about 30% for chum salmon.
    Description
    Dissertation (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 1992
    Date
    1992
    Type
    Dissertation
    Collections
    College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences
    Theses (Unassigned)

    entitlement

     
    ABOUT US|HELP|BROWSE|ADVANCED SEARCH

    The University of Alaska Fairbanks is an affirmative action/equal opportunity employer and educational institution and is a part of the University of Alaska system.

    ©UAF 2013 - 2023 | Questions? ua-scholarworks@alaska.edu | Last modified: September 25, 2019

    Open Repository is a service operated by 
    Atmire NV
     

    Export search results

    The export option will allow you to export the current search results of the entered query to a file. Different formats are available for download. To export the items, click on the button corresponding with the preferred download format.

    By default, clicking on the export buttons will result in a download of the allowed maximum amount of items.

    To select a subset of the search results, click "Selective Export" button and make a selection of the items you want to export. The amount of items that can be exported at once is similarly restricted as the full export.

    After making a selection, click one of the export format buttons. The amount of items that will be exported is indicated in the bubble next to export format.