• An application of Bayesian variable selection to international economic data

      Tian, Xiang; Goddard, Scott; Barry, Ron; Short, Margaret; McIntyre, Julie (2017-06)
      GDP plays an important role in people's lives. For example, when GDP increases, the unemployment rate will frequently decrease. In this project, we will use four different Bayesian variable selection methods to verify economic theory regarding important predictors to GDP. The four methods are: g-prior variable selection with credible intervals, local empirical Bayes with credible intervals, variable selection by indicator function, and hyper-g prior variable selection. Also, we will use four measures to compare the results of the various Bayesian variable selection methods: AIC, BIC, Adjusted-R squared and cross-validation.