• Energy Civilization: Civilization's Ultimate Energy Forecast

      Reynolds, Douglas (None, 2020-06-16)
      This treatise is an addendum to Reynolds’ (2011). It looks at the U.S. shale-oil production trend, and specifically at the Hubbert peak of that trend. Simmons (2005), Deffeyes (2001), Hubbert, (1962), Norgaard (1990) and Campbell (1997), among others show how there can be a peak in oil production. Reynolds (2002, 2009) explains the economic and cost theory for how and why the Hubbert Curve works, including how the information and depletion effects create such a curve. Nevertheless, Maugeri (2007), Adelman and Lynch (1997), and Lynch (2002) suggest that one should never curve fit an oil production trend, contrary to most economic disciplines where curve fitting using econometrics is the norm. Although, as of early 2020 the COVID-19 recession is greatly affecting petroleum markets. Nevertheless, the Hubbert supply trend is relevant. Also, Reynolds and Umekwe (2019) show that shale-gas and shale-oil can be compliments or substitutes in production. Based on that relationship, once the U.S. shale-oil peak occurs, it may be the world’s ultimate Hubbert peak with much smaller and lower Hubbert cycles thereafter. Worldwide petroleum institutions and strategies will also change. This treatise estimates a U.S. shale-oil Hubbert peak, scrutinizes the Hubbert related theories and explores oil price forecasts, taking into account medium run COVID-19 oil demand effects.