Browsing University of Alaska Fairbanks by Subject "ice"
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Impact of Daily Arctic Sea Ice Variability in CAM3.0 during Fall and WinterClimate projections suggest that an ice-free summer Arctic Ocean is possible within several decades and with this comes the prospect of increased ship traffic and safety concerns. The daily sea ice concentration tendency in five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations is compared with observations to reveal that many models underestimate this quantity that describes high-frequency ice movements, particularly in the marginal ice zone. To investigate whether high-frequency ice variability impacts the atmosphere, the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.0 (CAM3.0), is forced by sea ice with and without daily fluctuations. Two 100-member ensemble experiments with daily varying (DAILY) and smoothly varying (SMTH) sea ice are conducted, along with a climatological control, for an anoma- lously low ice period (August 2006–November 2007). Results are presented for three periods: September 2006, October 2006, and December–February (DJF) 2006/07. The atmospheric response differs between DAILY and SMTH. In September, sea ice differences lead to an anomalous high and weaker storm activity over northern Europe. During October, the ice expands equatorward faster in DAILY than SMTH in the Siberian seas and leads to a local response of near-surface cooling. In DJF, there is a 1.5-hPa positive sea level pressure anomaly over North America, leading to anomalous northerly flow and anomalously cool continental U.S. temperatures. While the atmospheric responses are modest, the differences arising from high temporal frequency ice variability cannot be ignored. Increasing the accuracy of coupled model sea ice variations on short time scales is needed to improve short-term coupled model forecasts.
Role of Arctic Sea Ice Variability in Climate ModelsArctic sea ice plays an important role in climate by influencing surface heat fluxes and albedo, so must be accurately represented in climate models. This study finds that the fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere-land Community Climate System Model (CCSM3.0) underestimates day-to-day ice variability compared to observations and employs the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.0) to investigate the atmospheric sensitivity to sea ice variability. Three 100-ensemble experiments are forced with climatological, daily-varying, and smoothly-varying sea ice conditions from an anomalously low ice period (September 2006-February 2007). Daily ice variability has a large local impact on the atmosphere when ice undergoes rapid changes, leading to local cooling and subsequent circulation changes. The most notable example of a large-scale atmospheric response occurs over Northern Europe during fall where daily ice variability forces reductions in the number and strength of cyclones, leading to positive sea level pressure anomalies, surface warming, and reduced cloud cover.