• Crop modeling to assess the impact of climate change on spring wheat growth in sub-Arctic Alaska

      Harvey, Stephen K.; Zhang, Mingchu; Karlsson, Meriam; Fochesatto, Gilberto (2019-05)
      In the sub-arctic region of Interior Alaska, warmer temperatures and a longer growing season caused by climate change could make spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) a more viable crop. In this study, a crop model was utilized to simulate the growth of spring wheat in future climate change scenarios RCP4.5 (medium-low emission) and RCP8.5 (high emission) of Fairbanks, Alaska. In order to fulfill such simulation, in 2018 high quality crop growth datasets were collected at the Fairbanks and Matanuska Valley Experiment Farms and along with historic variety trial data, the crop model was calibrated and validated for simulating days to maturity (emergence to physiological maturity) and yield of spring wheat in Fairbanks. In the Fairbanks 1989-2018 (baseline) climate, growing season (planting to physiological maturity) average temperature and total precipitation are 15.6° C and 122 mm, respectively. In RCP4.5 2020-2049 (2035s), 2050-2079 (2065s), and 2080-2099 (2090s) projected growing season average temperature and total precipitation are 16.7° C, 17.4° C, 17.8° C and 120 mm, 112 mm, 112 mm, respectively. In RCP8.5 2035s, 2065s, and 2090s projected growing season average temperature and total precipitation are 16.8° C, 18.5° C, 19.5° C and 120 mm, 113 mm, 117 mm, respectively. Using Ingal, an Alaskan spring wheat, the model simulated days to maturity and yield in baseline and projected climate scenarios of Fairbanks, Alaska. Baseline days to maturity were 69 and yield was 1991 kg ha-1. In RCP4.5 2035s, 2065s, and 2090s days to maturity decreased to 64, 62, 60 days, respectively, and yield decreased 2%, 6%, 8%, respectively. In RCP8.5 2035s, 2065s, and 2090s days to maturity decreased to 64, 58, 55 days, respectively, and yield decreased 1%, 3%, then increased 1%, respectively. Adaptation by cultivar modification to have a growing degree day requirement of 68 days to maturity in RCP4.5 2035s and RCP8.5 2035s resulted in increased yields of 4% and 5%, respectively. Climatic parameters of temperature and precipitation per growing season day are projected to become more favorable to the growth of spring wheat. However, precipitation deficit, an indicator of water stress was found to stay similar to the baseline climate. Without adaption, days to maturity and yield are projected to decrease. Selection and/or breeding of spring wheat varieties to maintain baseline days to maturity are a priority to materialize yield increases in the area of Fairbanks, Alaska.
    • Spatial variation in blueberry (Vaccinium uliginosum) and lingonberry (Vaccinium vitis-idaea) fruit production in Interior Alaska

      Parkinson, Linsey Viann; Mulder, Christa; Hollingsworth, Teresa; Spellman, Katie (2019-05)
      There are over 50 species of plants in Alaska that produce fleshy fruits (hereafter: "berries"), of which people consume 25. Berries are a key cultural and nutritional resource in rural Alaska and an important source of calories for a range of animals including bears (Ursus spp.), foxes (Vulpes vulpes), geese (e.g., Branta hutchinsii), and voles (e.g., Myodes rutilus). Berry production, from bud development to ripe fruit, takes at least 15 months and may be affected by factors even a year or two before that. Many studies in the circumpolar North focus on these interannual effects on fruit production but few assess how local variation within a forested region may affect berry numbers. Changes in the frequency and severity of wildfires in the boreal forest has affected soil conditions and plant community structure, which may alter the range of circumstances a species must respond to, influencing overall fruit production at a site. I studied how fruit production in Vaccinium uliginosum (blueberry) and V. vitis-idaea (lingonberry), responded to factors such as pollen load, floral resources, canopy cover, and soil conditions within forest sites of Interior Alaska. I found two distinct habitat types in the Interior Alaskan forest, upland and lowland, which differed by elevation, soil moisture (lower in upland sites), and active layer (deeper in upland sites). We found lingonberry was more pollen limited than blueberry, and plants in lowland sites were more pollen limited while plants in upland sites were more resource limited. Additionally, canopy cover had a significant negative effect on a ramet's investment in flowers, berries, and leaves, versus structural growth, in upland sites but little effect in lowland sites. I was able to explain more of the variation in berry production and resource allocation in upland sites than lowland sites. Pollen and resource limitation differed between the two species and between uplands and lowlands suggesting Vaccinium berry production and resource allocation is partially defined by spatial variability of the landscape.