Temporal and spatial variation of broadleaf forest flammability in boreal Alaska

Abstract

The boreal forest is a carbon reservoir containing roughly 40% of the world's reactive soil carbon, which is mainly cycled by wildland fires. Climate warming in boreal Alaska has changed the wildfire regime such that an increase in broadleaf forest relative to conifer forest is likely, which may reduce landscape flammability. However, the current and future flammability of broadleaf forest in a warming climate is not well understood. We used pre-fire and post-fire geospatial data to investigate the flammability of upland boreal forest patches in Interior Alaska in relation to summer weather conditions. Our objectives were to assess burning of broadleaf forest patches during "Normal" vs. "Large Fire Years", by week within a fire season, and by topographic position. Using 30-meter land-cover and fire-severity grids, we estimated the flammability of upland broadleaf forest patches during Large and Normal Fire Years. We then tested for topographic effects using a solar radiation index to eliminate potential deviations within the vegetation. Finally, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) hotspots were used to track the spatial extent of burns during the fire season by examining the periods of fire activity and intensity. Flammability of broadleaf forest patches varied both in time and space. Even during Normal Fire Years, broadleaf forest patches exhibited substantial flammability, with a mean of over 50% patch area burned. Patch flammability was significantly higher during Large Fire Years. Burning of broadleaf patches varied with topographic position and correlated with potential insolation. Broadleaf forest patches burned most frequently in late June-early July. Contrary to "conventional wisdom", broadleaf forest patches in boreal Alaska are susceptible to burning even during Normal Fire Years. With climate warming, the flammability of broadleaf forest is likely to increase due to more extreme fire weather events. Thus, although the frequency of broadleaf forest patches on the landscape is likely to increase with more frequent and severe wildfires, their effectiveness as a fire break may decrease in the future.