• Late quaternary and future biome simulations for Alaska and eastern Russia

      Hendricks, Amy S.; Walsh, John; Saito, Kazuyuki; Bigelow, Nancy; Bhatt, Uma (2016-05)
      Arctic biomes across a region including Alaska and Eastern Russia were investigated using the BIOME4 biogeochemical and biogeography vegetation model. This study investigated past (the last 21,000 years), present, and future vegetation distributions in the study area, using climate forcing from five CMIP5 models (CCSM4, GISS-E2-R, MIROC-ESM, MPI-ESM, and MRI-CGCM3). The present-day BIOME4 simulations were generally consistent with current vegetation observations in the study region characterized by evergreen and deciduous taiga and shrub tundras. Paleoclimatological simulations were compared with pollen data samples collected in the study region. Pre-industrial biome simulations are generally similar to the modern reconstruction but differ by having more shrub tundra in both Russia and Alaska to the north, as well as less deciduous taiga in Alaska. Pre-industrial simulations were in good agreement with the pollen data. Mid-Holocene simulations place shrub tundras along the Arctic coast, and in some cases along the eastern coast of Russia. Simulations for the Mid-Holocene are in good agreement with pollen-based distributions of biomes. Simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) show that the Bering Land Bridge was covered almost entirely by cushion forb, lichen and moss tundra, shrub tundra, and graminoid tundra. Three out of the five models’ climate data produce evergreen and deciduous taiga in what is now southwestern Alaska, however the pollen data does not support this. The distributions of cushion forb, lichen, and moss tundra and graminoid tundra differ noticeably between models, while shrub tundra distributions are generally similar. Future simulations of BIOME4 based on the RCP8.5 climate scenario indicate a northward shift of the treeline and a significant areal decrease of shrub tundra and graminoid tundra regions in the 21st century. Intrusions of cool mixed, deciduous, and conifer forests above 60°N, especially in southwest Alaska, were notable. Across eastern Russia, deciduous taiga begins to overtake evergreen taiga, except along the coastal regions where evergreen taiga remains the favored biome.
    • Lidar and radar studies of turbulence, instabilities, and waves in the Arctic middle atmosphere

      Li, Jintai; Collins, Richard L.; Newman, David E.; Simpson, William R.; Thorsen, Denise L.; Williams, Bifford P. (2019-08)
      This dissertation presents new studies of gravity waves and turbulence in the Arctic middle atmosphere. The studies employ lidars and radar to characterize wave activity, instability and turbulence. In the lidar-based studies, we analyze turbulence and wave activity in the MLT based on lidar measurements of atmospheric temperature, density and sodium density, temperature and wind. This combination of measurements provides simultaneous characterization of both the atmospheric stability as well as material transport that allow us to estimate the eddy diffusion coefficient associated with turbulence. We extend the scope of previous studies by developing retrievals of potential temperature and sodium mixing ratio from the Rayleigh density temperature lidar and sodium resonance density lidar measurements. We find that the estimated values of turbulent eddy diffusion coefficients, K, of 400-2800 m²/s, are larger than typically reported (1-1000 m²/s) while the values of the energy dissipation rates, ε, of 5-20 mW/kg, are more typical (0.1-1000 mW/kg). We find that upwardly propagating gravity waves accompany the instabilities. In the presence of instabilities, we find that the gravity waves are dissipating as they propagate upward. We estimate the energy available for turbulence generation from the wave activities and estimate the possible turbulent energy dissipation rate, εGW. We find that the values of εGW are comparable to the values of ε. We find that the estimate of the depth of the layer of turbulence are critical to the estimate of the values of both ε and εGW. We find that our method tends to overestimate the depth, and thus overestimate the value of ε, and underestimate the value of εGW. In the radar-based study, we conduct a retrieval of turbulent parameters in the mesosphere based on a hypothesis test. We distinguish between the presence and absence of turbulence based on fitting Voigt-based and Lorentzian-based line shapes to the radar spectra. We also allow for the presence and absence of meteoric smoke particles (MSPs) in the radar spectra. We find examples of Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR) spectra showing both the presence and absence of turbulence and the presence and absence of MSPs in the upper mesosphere. Based on the analysis, we find that relatively few of the radar measurements yield significant measurements of turbulence. The significant estimates of turbulence have a strength that is over a factor of two larger than the average of the estimates from all of the radar measurements. The probability of true positives increases with the quality factor of the spectrum. The method yields significant measurements of turbulence with probabilities of true positives of greater than 30% and false positives less than 0.01%.
    • Lidar and satellite studies of noctilucent clouds over Alaska

      Alspach, Jennifer H.; Collins, Richard; Bossert, Katrina; Thorsen, Denise; Fochesatto, Javier (2020-05)
      This thesis presents studies of noctilucent clouds (NLCs) occurring in the summer polar mesosphere over Alaska. Lidar observations of NLCs conducted at Poker Flat Research Range in Chatanika, Alaska (65° N, 147° W) from 1998-2019 are analyzed. The NLCs detected by lidar are characterized in terms of their brightness properties and duration. NLCs were detected on ~51% of the nights when lidar observations have been conducted during NLC season. The brighter NLCs are found to exist at lower altitudes, indicating a growth-sedimentation mechanism. Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) data from the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) satellite is used to examine NLC occurrence and brightness over the Alaska region (60-70° N, 130-170° W). In general, high frequency and brightness in the CIPS data corresponds to positive detections of NLCs by the lidar. Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) temperature and water vapor data from the Aura satellite is used to investigate the meteorological environment of the NLCs observed by lidar at Chatanika. The occurrence of NLCs at Chatanika is found to be driven by the temperature relative to the frost point. Low temperatures relative to the frost point (> 4 K below) correspond to observations when NLCs were present. High temperatures relative to the frost point (> 8 K above) correspond to observations when NLCs were absent. The MLS data is also used to investigate the stability of an ice cloud at different latitudes (64.7°-70.3° N) relative to the equilibrium water vapor mixing ratio. The stability study suggests that the weakest NLCs detected by lidar at Chatanika were in subsaturated conditions, and it is likely that the NLCs formed over several hundred kilometers to the north of Chatanika. The Rayleigh three-channel receiver system was used to conduct NLC measurements during 2019. A technical overview of the three-channel system and the density and temperature retrieval methods is presented at the end of the thesis using observations from the winter of 2018 and the summer of 2019.
    • Micropulse lidar observations of aerosols over the atmospheric radiation measurement site at Barrow

      Tiruchirapalli, Ramaswamy A.S.R. (2006-12)
      Micropulse lidar (MPL) is a ground-based optical remote sensing system designed to determine the vertical structure of clouds and aerosols in the atmosphere. An MPL has operated at Barrow, Alaska since November 2002. From these data, we seek to determine the altitude of aerosol layers in the free troposphere from lidar backscatter profiles. Layer heights are then fed into the HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model) model, a back-trajectory model developed by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) to compute isentropic back-trajectories. The model is run interactively using the READY interface and can calculate trajectories from multiple heights within a layer. Case analyses are done correlating dates and trajectory coordinates, synoptic weather charts and events reported from satellites and other remote sensing instruments to determine aerosol sources (e.g. forest fire, volcano eruption or dust storm). All the aerosol events detected by the MPL were categorized into five common atmospheric flow patterns identified from the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) / NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis charts. We conclude that most of the MPL-identified free-tropospheric aerosol layers could be attributed to Siberian/Alaskan forest fires and Asian dust storms.
    • Midlatitude Cirrus Cloud Structural Properties Analyzed From The Extended Facility For Atmospheric Remote Sensing Dataset

      Wang, Likun; Sassen, Kenneth; Cahill, Cathy; Mölders, Nicole; Shaw, Glen; Starr, David O'C (2004)
      The knowledge on cirrus inhomogeneous structural properties is important not only in radiation calculations, but also in deeply understanding the dynamics mechanism including the formation, development, and dissipation of cirrus clouds. The midlatitude cirrus inhomogeneous structural properties have been evaluated by analyzing the 10-year high cloud datasets obtained at the University of Utah, Facility for Atmospheric Remote Sensing in Salt Lake City, UT. Three goals have been reached in this research. First, the means to analyze lidar data using wavelet analysis, an advanced approach to obtain information on the structure of cirrus clouds, has been successfully developed. And then, typical cirrus structures including Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities, cirrus mammata, and the uncinus cells have been analyzed by case studies and statistical survey. Their dynamical mechanisms, environmental characteristics, and vertical and horizontal length scale have been studied. Thirdly, using the method based on the wavelet transform and other methods, a climatology of midlatitude cirrus horizontal inhomogeneous properties is developed from the FARS lidar backscattered power data, the proxies of real cirrus clouds.
    • A model composite assessment of the enhancement of Arctic warming by sea ice retreat

      Murray, Colin Patrick (2006-05)
      Five global climate models used in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment are utilized to estimate the local enhancement of Arctic warming attributable to sea ice retreat in 21st century B2-scenario greenhouse gas (GHG) simulations. The models show a wide range of ice retreat, resulting in a corresponding range in the enhancement of warming. The enhancement is highly seasonal, varying locally from essentially zero in the summer to several degrees CC) in the late autumn and early winter. The composite climate model response to GHG forcing manifests as a nonlinear amplification of seasonally modulated warming enhancement. The magnitude of the warming enhancement increases with the threshold decline in ice concentration used to define retreat because higher thresholds better isolate the warming enhancement signal over ice retreat areas. A threshold of 20% ensures that all models in this study have enough ice retreat area to sample the enhancement because all start with ice concentrations at least that high over substantial northern hemisphere areas. All estimates are lower bounds because they do not account for advective effects.
    • Modeling investigation of northern hemisphere extratropical storm variability and changes in a warming climate

      Basu, Soumik; Zhang, Xiangdong; Bhatt, Uma; Mölders, Nicole; Polyakov, Igor (2014-05)
      Extratropical cyclones are fundamental elements for shaping weather patterns, causing fluctuations of temperatures, bringing rain or snow, and carrying winds to impact daily life. The intensity and number of North Hemisphere extratropical cyclones have demonstrated large interannual variability and long-term changes. To understand the variability and changes, we conducted a modeling investigation using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)'s Community Atmosphere Model. Specifically, we examined the effects of two surface forcing factors, including sea surface temperature (SST) associated with El Niño and Arctic sea-ice cover, which represent a major source of natural variability and climate changes. Our modeling investigation indicates that the tropical Pacific SST and Arctic sea ice have significant impacts on Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude and Arctic cyclone activities. The elevated tropical Pacific SST leads to more numerous intense storms over southwestern, southeastern, and northwestern North America, but fewer weaker storms over the northeast. The underlying physical mechanism is enhanced lower tropospheric baroclinicity, which is attributable to a southward shift and an intensification of the subtropical jet. The decreased Arctic sea-ice cover leads to an increased storm activity over the Arctic but a decrease in the mid-latitudes. A corresponding examination of surface climate shows anomalously higher surface air temperature and precipitation when low Arctic sea-ice cover occurs, due to an integrative contribution from an increase in surface sensible and latent heat fluxes and horizontal heat advection. In contrast, reduced Arctic sea ice weakens storm activity and intensifies anticyclones over Eurasia, giving rise to decreased surface air temperature and precipitation. Unlike many other parameters, the Arctic sea ice has shown a dramatic decline in addition to interannual fluctuations. We therefore conducted further modeling experiments to identify the role of this long term sea-ice trend on storm activity. The results show that the long-term decline causes a weakening of overall storm activity but an increase in extreme storm events over the Northern Hemisphere. The atmospheric energetic analysis suggests that the increased conversion rate between transient available potential energy and transient kinetic energy is a leading factor in supporting the increased frequency of extreme storms. Over Eurasia, changes in storm activity are mainly governed by the mean kinetic energy of the atmospheric circulation and its conversion to the transient kinetic energy.
    • Modelling investigation of interaction between Arctic sea ice and storms: insights from case studies and climatological hindcast simulations

      Semenov, Alexander; Zhang, Xiangdong; Bhatt, Uma; Hutchings, Jennifer; Mölders, Nicole (2019-05)
      The goal of this study is to improve understanding of atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean interactions in the context of Arctic storm activities. The reduction of Arctic sea ice extent, increase in ocean water temperatures, and changes of atmospheric circulation have been manifested in the Arctic Ocean along with the large surface air temperature increase during recent decades. All of these changes may change the way in which atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean interact, which may in turn feedback to Arctic surface air warming. To achieve the goal, we employed an integrative approach including analysis of modeling simulation results and conducting specifically designed model sensitivity experiments. The novelty of this study is linking synoptic scale storms to large-scale changes in sea ice and atmospheric circulation. The models were used in this study range from the regional fully coupled Arctic climate model HIRHAM-NAOSIM to the ocean-sea ice component model of the Community Earth System Model CESM and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Analysis of HIRHAM-NAOSIM simulation outputs shows regionally dependent variability of storm count with a higher number of storms over the Atlantic side than over the Pacific side. High-resolution simulations also reproduce higher number of storms than lower resolution reanalysis dataset. This is because the high-resolution model may capture more shallow and small size storms. As an integrated consequence, the composite analysis shows that more numerous intense storms produce low-pressure systems centered over the Barents-Kara-Laptev seas and the Chukchi-East Siberian seas, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation over the Atlantic Arctic Ocean and Pacific Arctic Ocean. Correspondingly, anomalous sea ice transport occurs, enhancing sea ice outflow out of the Barents-Kara-Laptev sea ice and weakening sea ice inflow into the Chukchi-Beaufort seas from the thick ice area north of the Canadian Archipelago. This change in sea ice transport causes a decrease in sea ice concentration and thickness in these two areas. However, energy budget analysis exhibits a decrease in downward net sea ice heat fluxes, reducing sea ice melt, when more numerous intense storms occur. This decrease could be attributed to increased cloudiness and destabilized atmospheric boundary layer associated with intense storms, which can result in a decrease in downward shortwave radiation and an increase in upward turbulent heat fluxes. The sea ice-ocean component CICE-POP of Community Earth System Model (CESM) was used to conduct sensitivity experiment to examine impacts of two selected storms on sea ice. CICE-POP is generally able to simulate the observed spatial distribution of the Arctic sea-ice concentration, thickness, and motion, and interannual variability of the Arctic sea ice area for the period 1979 to 2011. However, some biases still exit, including overestimated sea-ice drift speeds, particularly in the Transpolar Drift Stream, and overestimated sea-ice concentration in the Atlantic Arctic but slightly underestimated sea ice concentration in the Pacific Arctic. Analysis of CICE-POP sensitivity experiments suggests that dynamic forcing associated with the storms plays more important driving role in causing sea ice changes than thermodynamics does in the case of storm in March 2011, while both thermodynamic and dynamic forcings have comparable impacts on sea ice decrease in the case of the August 2012. In case of March 2011 storm, increased surface winds caused the reduction of sea ice area in the Barents and Kara Seas by forcing sea ice to move eastward. Sea ice reduction was primarily driven by mechanical processes rather than ice melting. On the contrary, the case study of August 2012 storm, that occurred during the Arctic summer, exemplified the case of equal contribution of mechanical sea ice redistribution of sea ice in the Chukchi - East Siberian - Beaufort seas and melt in sea ice reduction. To understand the impacts of the changed Arctic environment on storm dynamics, we carried out WRF model simulations for a selected Arctic storm that occurred in March 2011. Model output highlight the importance of both increased surface turbulent heat fluxes due to sea ice retreat and self-enhanced warm and moist air advection from the North Atlantic into the Arctic. These external forcing factor and internal dynamic process sustain and even strengthen atmospheric baroclinicity, supporting the storm to develop and intensify. Additional sensitivity experiments further suggest that latent heat release resulting from condensation/precipitation within the storm enhances baroclinicity aloft and, in turn, causes a re-intensification of the storm from its decaying phase.
    • Multi-decadal variability of Atlantic water heat transports as seen in the community climate systems model version 3.0

      Sterling, Kara (2006-05)
      Changes in oceanic heat transports from the North Atlantic to the Arctic, via Atlantic Water (AW), can have widespread impacts upon Arctic climate. Using a multi-century control simulation from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Systems Model version 3.0 (CCSM3), the natural multi-decadal variability (MDV) of AW is characterized. Calculations of AW volume fluxes and heat transports into the Arctic are analyzed for the Svinøy transect, Fram Strait, and Barents Sea Opening (BSO), and compared with observations. Warm and cold phases of AW are examined through composite analysis, and quantified with respect to their effects on Arctic climate. The model captures several key features of AW, such as the overall circulation and depth of the AW core, but over-estimates AW temperatures by about 1 ⁰C. AW heat anomalies can be tracked from the Svinøy transect to the Arctic interior with a timescale of 13 years, which is comparable to observations. Composites reveal a deepening (shoaling) of the AW core during warm (cold) periods. Warm (cold) periods are also characterized by greater AW transports through the BSO (Fram Strait), implying the existence of an internal ocean feedback mechanism that helps to regulate oscillations of AW between warm/cold periods.
    • A new sensitivity analysis and solution method for scintillometer measurements of area-average turbulent fluxes

      Gruber, Matthew; Fochesatto, Gilberto J.; Zhang, Xiangdong; Collins, Richard L. (2013-08)
      Scintillometer measurements of the turbulence inner-scale length l₀ and refractive index structure function C²n allow for the retrieval of large-scale area-averaged turbulent fluxes in the atmospheric surface layer. This retrieval involves the solution of the non-linear set of equations defined by the Monin-Obukhov similarity hypothesis. A new method that uses an analytic solution to the set of equations is presented, which leads to a stable and efficient numerical method of computation that has the potential of eliminating computational error. Mathematical expressions are derived that map out the sensitivity of the turbulent flux measurements to uncertainties in source measurements such as l₀. These sensitivity functions differ from results in the previous literature; the reasons for the differences are explored.
    • On using numerical sea-ice prediction and indigenous observations to improve operational sea-ice forecasts during spring in the Bering Sea

      Deemer, Gregory Joseph; Bhatt, Uma; Eicken, Hajo; Hutchings, Jennifer; Danielson, Seth (2015-05)
      Impacts of a rapidly changing climate are amplified in the Arctic. The most notorious change has come in the form of record-breaking summertime sea-ice retreat. Larger areas of open water and a prolonged ice-free season create opportunity for some industries, but bring new challenges to indigenous populations that rely on sea-ice cover for subsistence. Observed and projected increases in Arctic maritime activities require accurate sea-ice forecasts on the weather timescale, which are currently lacking. Motivated by emerging needs, this study explores how new modeling developments and local-scale observations can contribute to improving sea-ice forecasts. The Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System, a research sea-ice forecast model developed by the U.S. Navy, is evaluated for forecast skill. Forecasts of ice concentration, thickness, and drift speed produced by the model from April through June 2011 in the Bering Sea have been investigated to determine how the model performs relative to persistence and climatology. Results show that model forecasts can outperform forecasts based on climatology or persistence. However, predictive skill is less consistent during powerful, synoptic-scale events and near the Bering Slope. Forecast case studies in Western Alaska are presented. Community-based observations from recognized indigenous sea-ice experts have been analyzed to gauge the prospect of using local observations in the operational sea-ice monitoring and prediction process. Local observations are discussed in the context of cross-validating model guidance, data sources used in operational ice monitoring, and public sea-ice information products issued by the U.S. National Weather Service. Instrumentation for observing sea-ice and weather at the local scale was supplied to key observers. The instrumentation shows utility in the field and may help translate the context of indigenous observations and provide ground-truth data for use by forecasters.
    • Particle dynamics in the plasma sheet

      Wagner, John S. (1978-08)
      Trajectories of charged particles in the tail region of the earth's magnetosphere are studied using a model magnetic field. The particles form a thin sheet-like structure in the magnetotail called the plasma sheet. It is shown that most trajectories are categorized by two dimensionless parameters. One of them is equal to the ratio of the cross-tail electric force to the magnetic force in the midplane and determines the maximum particle energization. The other parameter is the ratio of the plasma sheet thickness to the particle gyroradius in the midplane and determines the degree to which the particle motion is adiabatic. All previous attempts at studying trajectories in the magnetotail are shown to be applicable only over limited ranges of the two parameters. Hence those studies are combined into a common framework, and those trajectories which have not been studied previously are added for completeness.
    • Radar studies of turbulence and lidar studies of the nickel layer in the Arctic mesosphere

      Li, Jintai; Collins, Richard L.; Simpson, William R.; Newman, David E. (2016-05)
      This thesis presents studies of the Arctic middle atmosphere using Incoherent Scatter Radar (ISR) and resonance lidar at Poker Flat Research Range (PFRR), Chatanika, Alaska. The Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR) provides measurements of mesospheric turbulence and the resonance lidar provides measurements of mesospheric nickel layer. We develop retrieval and analysis techniques to determine the characteristics of the turbulence and the nickel layer. We present measurements of mesospheric turbulence with PFISR on 23 April 2008 and 18 February 2013. We characterize mesospheric turbulence in terms of the energy dissipation rate as a function of altitude and time on these days. We present an extensive analysis of the radar measurements to show that the use of high quality PFISR data and an accurate characterization of the geophysical conditions are essential to achieve accurate turbulent measurements. We find that the retrieved values of the energy dissipation rate vary significantly based on how the data is selected. We present measurements of mesospheric nickel layer with resonance lidar on the night of 27-28 November 2012 and 20-21 December 2012. We characterize the mesospheric nickel layer in terms of the nickel concentration as a function of altitude on these days. We find that our nickel concentrations are significantly higher than expected from studies of meteors. We present an extensive analysis of the lidar measurements to show that these measurements of unexpectedly high values of the nickel concentrations are accurate and not biased by the lidar measurements.
    • Rayleigh lidar studies of mesospheric inversion layers at Poker Flat Research Range, Chatanika, Alaska

      Irving, Brita K. (2012-08)
      Rayleigh lidar observations at Poker Flat Research Range, Chatanika, Alaska (65°N, 213°E), have yielded density and temperature measurements from 40-80 km. These measurements have been made under clear nighttime skies since November 1997. This thesis presents a study of Mesospheric Inversion Layers (MILs) and lidar performance at Chatanika. MILs are identified and characterized in the 40-70 km altitude region on 55 of the 149 wintertime observations over two periods, November 1997-April 2005 and November 2007-March 2009, using a new detection algorithm. Investigation of the MILs compared with planetary wave activity as observed by satellite finds a strong correlation between the presence of MILs and the structure of the planetary waves. These two periods are marked by strong planetary wave activity and sudden stratospheric warming events. MILs are found to occur more frequently than previously reported at Arctic sites, but less frequently than at lower latitudes. In spring 2012 the existing lidar system was extended by incorporating a larger aperture telescope and higher power laser and field trials were conducted. The results from these field trails are presented and the ability of the new lidar system to extend the scope of future studies at Chatanika is assessed.
    • The relation of spring pollen release to weather in Fairbanks, Alaska

      Fathauer, Theodore F.; Mölders, Nicole; Bhat, Uma; Wendler, Gerd (2012-08)
      Twenty-three years of pollen data for Fairbanks have been analyzed and related to meteorological data (temperature, wind, relative humidity and precipitation). The purpose of this research is to develop quantitative statistical relationships between weather parameters and the timing and magnitude of pollen release for four taxa native to the Fairbanks area (birch, alder spruce and grass). During the spring and early summer in Fairbanks, dry, sunny and breezy days are common. These conditions are ideal for establishing an unstable boundary layer and its accompanying convective circulation, which can loft large quantities of pollen into the atmosphere. The timing of pollen release varies from season to season by as many as 24 days. Growing degree days based upon daily maximum temperatures and daily minimum relative humidity are the parameters which best define the timing of the onset of significant pollen release. The day-to-day concentration of pollen and the seasonal totals of pollen released can vary by more than an order of magnitude. Weather plays an important part in this because the release of pollen is a result of a drying process accompanied by turbulent circulation, which disperses the pollen.
    • Response of major modes of eastern Arctic Ocean variability to climate change

      Baumann, Till M.; Polyakov, Igor V.; Bhatt, Uma S.; Walsh, John E.; Weingartner, Thomas J. (2019-12)
      The Arctic Ocean plays a central role in ongoing climate change, with sea ice loss being the most prominent indicator. Recent observations showed that Atlantic inflows play an increasingly important role in the demise of sea ice. This encroaching atlantification of the eastern Arctic Ocean impacts the mean state and the variability of hydrography and current dynamics throughout the basin. Among the most energetic modes of variability are the seasonal cycle and high frequency semidiurnal (∼12-hourly) dynamics in the tidal and inertial frequency band. Limited observations indicated a substantial increase of both, hydrographic seasonal cycles as well as semidiurnal current dynamics in the eastern Arctic over the last decade. Using a uniquely comprehensive data set from an array of six moorings deployed across the eastern Eurasian Basin (EB) continental slope along the 125°E meridian between 2013 and 2015 within the NABOS project, we assess the state of hydrographic seasonal cycles in the eastern EB. Results show a complex pattern of seasonality with a remarkably strong (∆T=1.4°C), deep reaching (∼600 m) temperature signal over the continental slope and large-scale seasonal displacements of isopycnal interfaces. Seasonally changing background conditions are also the main source of variability of semidiurnal frequency band currents: During winter, vigorous baroclinic tidal currents whose amplitudes by far exceed predictions follow the vertical evolution of the pycnocline. During summer, extensive open-water periods additionally lead to strong wind-driven inertial currents in the upper ocean, routinely exceeding 30 cm/s far offshore in the deep basin. In order to obtain an Arctic-wide perspective on the impact of baroclinic tidal currents, a pan-Arctic tidal current atlas has been developed that synthesizes all available observations from the last 20 years. This atlas allows for in-depth studies of regional baroclinic tidal current variability as well as for validation of ocean and climate models, an essential step towards more accurate projections of the future Arctic Ocean state. Our findings from the eastern EB region already indicate a new, more dynamic state of the eastern Arctic Ocean with direct implications for the ecosystem and further sea-ice reduction.
    • Rocket and lidar studies of waves and turbulence in the Arctic middle atmosphere

      Triplett, Colin Charles; Collins, Richard L.; Weingartner, Thomas; Newman, David; Lehmacher, Gerald; Bhatt, Uma S. (2016-08)
      This dissertation presents new studies of waves and turbulence in the Arctic middle atmosphere. The study has a primary focus on wintertime conditions when the largescale circulation of the middle atmosphere is disrupted by the breaking of planetary waves associated with sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. We used ongoing Rayleigh lidar measurements of density and temperature to conduct a multi-year study of gravity waves in the upper stratosphere-lower mesosphere (USLM) over Poker Flat Research Range (PFRR) at Chatanika, Alaska. We analyzed the night-to-night gravity wave activity in terms of the wind structure and the ageostrophy. We find that the weak winds during disturbed conditions block the vertical propagation of gravity waves into the mesosphere. The gravity wave activity is correlated with the altitudes where the winds are weakest. During periods of weak winds we find little correlation with ageostrophy. However, during periods of stronger winds we find the USLM gravity wave activity is correlated with the ageostrophy in the upper troposphere indicating that ageostrophy in this region is a source of the gravity waves. Inter-annually we find the wintertime gravity wave activity is correlated with the level of disturbance of the middle atmosphere, being reduced in those winters with a higher level of disturbance and weaker winds. We used rocket-borne ion gauges to measure turbulence in the wintertime middle atmosphere while documenting the larger meteorological context from Rayleigh lidar and satellites. This investigation of turbulence was called the Mesosphere-Lower Thermosphere Turbulence Experiment (MTeX). During MTeX we found a highly disturbed atmosphere associated with an SSW where winds were weak and gravity wave activity was low. We found low levels of turbulence in the upper mesosphere. The turbulence was primarily found in regions of convective instability in the topside of mesospheric inversion layers (MILs). The strongest and most persist turbulence was found in a MIL that is associated with the breaking of a monochromatic gravity wave. These MTeX observations indicate that turbulence is generated by gravity wave breaking as opposed to gravity wave saturation. These MTeX findings of low levels of turbulence are consistent with recent model studies of vertical transport during SSWs and support the view that eddy transport is not a dominant transport mechanism during SSWs.
    • Role of Arctic Sea Ice Variability in Climate Models

      Dammann, Dyre O.; Bhatt, Uma; Polyakov, Igor; Zhang, Xiang (2011-08)
      Arctic sea ice plays an important role in climate by influencing surface heat fluxes and albedo, so must be accurately represented in climate models. This study finds that the fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere-land Community Climate System Model (CCSM3.0) underestimates day-to-day ice variability compared to observations and employs the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.0) to investigate the atmospheric sensitivity to sea ice variability. Three 100-ensemble experiments are forced with climatological, daily-varying, and smoothly-varying sea ice conditions from an anomalously low ice period (September 2006-February 2007). Daily ice variability has a large local impact on the atmosphere when ice undergoes rapid changes, leading to local cooling and subsequent circulation changes. The most notable example of a large-scale atmospheric response occurs over Northern Europe during fall where daily ice variability forces reductions in the number and strength of cyclones, leading to positive sea level pressure anomalies, surface warming, and reduced cloud cover.
    • Role Of Waves On The Circulation Of The Arctic Middle Atmosphere: Rayleigh Lidar Measurements And Analysis

      Thurairajah, Brentha (2009)
      Rayleigh lidar measurements of the upper stratosphere and mesosphere are made on a routine basis over Poker Flat Research Range (PFRR), Chatanika, Alaska, (65�N, 147�W). Rayleigh lidar measurements have yielded high resolution temperature and density profiles in the 40-80 km altitude. These measurements are used to calculate gravity wave activity in the 40-50 km altitude. The thermal structure of the stratosphere and mesosphere is documented using an eight year data set, and the role of small scale gravity waves on the large scale meridional circulation is analyzed in terms of the synoptic structure of the Arctic stratospheric vortex, Aleutian anticyclone, and planetary wave activity. The monthly mean temperature indicates colder January temperatures that appear to be due to the increase in frequency of occurrence of stratospheric warming events from 1997-2004. The gravity wave potential energy density is analyzed during stratospheric warming events in two experimental time periods. From the first study consisting of three winters, 2002-2003, 2003-2004, and 2004-2005, the first direct measurement of suppression of gravity wave activity during the formation of an elevated stratopause following the 2003-2004 stratospheric warming event is presented. The gravity wave potential energy density at Chatanika is positively correlated with horizontal wind speeds in the stratosphere, and indicates that the wave activity in the 4050 km altitude is partially modulated by the background flow. In the second study with more recent winters of 2007-2008 and 2008-2009, no systematic difference in the magnitude of potential energy density between the vortex displacement warming event during the 2007-2008 winter and vortex split warming event during the 2008-2009 winter is found. However, the low correlation between gravity wave potential energy and horizontal wind speed after the first warming in January 2008, and a higher correlation after the January 2009 warming suggests that while the gravity wave activity after the 2009 warming is modulated by the background flow, other wave sources modulate the gravity wave activity after the 2008 warming.