ScholarWorks@UA: Recent submissions
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Alaska Health Care Spending ReportThis research brief reports on healthcare spending in Alaska since 1991 and compares health care costs and expenditures in Alaska to national averages.
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School Travel Behaviors in Rural Communities: Pandemic-Related ImpactsThe global pandemic, which started around early 2020, significantly disrupted life for many families, and the trip to and from school was not immune to these disruptions. Parents and children alike made travel adjustments depending on their preferences with regard to personal health and safety, social distancing, and aversion to risk. Each school district and individual school also made decisions with regard to in-person or remote learning during this period of uncertainty. In this study, the research team examines how the pandemic affected school transportation for hundreds of families across the Pacific Northwest. An online survey was developed and administered with the help of Qualtrics, an experience management company. Over 600 responses were gathered to assess school transportation-related travel decisions. In addition to collecting demographic data about the respondents, the survey also asked about travel mode choices and characteristics of the trip to and from school. The collective results were then analyzed to determine which factors directly contributed to pandemic-related changes in travel behavior. The study concluded that the demographic factors of parent education level, household income, and age of child were all statistically significant variables that affected behavioral change, though the place of household residence, whether rural or urban, was determined to be an insignificant variable. Additionally, common travel assumptions associated with rural students, when compared with urban students, were confirmed. These factors included a greater reliance on a yellow school bus and lesser availability of critical infrastructure.
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Gradients of deposition and in situ production drive Global glacier organic matter compositionRunoff from rapidly melting mountain glaciers is a dominant source of riverine organic carbon in many high-latitude and high-elevation regions. Glacier dissolved organic carbon is highly bioavailable, and its composition likely reflects internal (e.g., autotrophic production) and external (i.e., atmospheric deposition) sources. However, the balance of these sources across Earth's glaciers is poorly understood, despite implications for the mineralization and assimilation of glacier organic carbon within recipient ecosystems. We assessed the molecular-level composition of dissolved organic matter from 136 mountain glacier outflows from 11 regions covering six continents using ultrahigh resolution 21 T mass spectrometry. We found substantial diversity in organic matter composition with coherent and predictable (80% accuracy) regional patterns. Employing stable and radiocarbon isotopic analyses, we demonstrate that these patterns are inherently linked to atmospheric deposition and in situ production. In remote regions like Greenland and New Zealand, the glacier organic matter pool appears to be dominated by in situ production. However, downwind of industrial centers (e.g., Alaska and Nepal), fossil fuel combustion byproducts likely underpin organic matter composition, resulting in older and more aromatic material being exported downstream. These findings highlight that the glacier carbon cycle is spatially distinct, with ramifications for predicting the dynamics and fate of glacier organic carbon concurrent with continued retreat and anthropogenic perturbation.
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Nesting habitat relationships of four species of alcids at Fish Island, AlaskaTufted Puffins, Horned Puffins, Parakeet Auklets, and Pigeon Guillemots were studied at Fish Island, Alaska, 59°52, N, 147°25, W, to determine if nesting habitat relationships indicated nest separa- tion or competition. The timing of early stages of breeding and daily activity patterns overlapped broadly among all species. Aggressive interactions occurred among all species. Tufted Puffins nested in cliff edges and grassy slopes; all species used rocky slopes and cliff faces. Tufted Puffin nests in rocks differed from Pigeon Guillemot and Parakeet Auklet nests in having larger entrance height and area, and they were placed farther from the high tide line. These dif- ferences related to body size and take-off ability, and may be indica- tions of past competition for nest sites. Interspecific interactions and site use by more than one species indicated some competition may have occurred for certain sites. Overall, most evidence indicated competition had little influence on nest site use among species.
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Data Submission Package for Manuscript 'Using Machine Learning, the Cloud, Big Data, Citizen-science, and the world’s largest set of environmental predictors towards proposing modern add-ons to improve conservation management plans for squirrel species in Alaska and Indigenous lands'Context. Squirrel species in Alaska generally lack thorough conservation management plans, and they are actively hunted with no bag limits, closed seasons, or any other restrictions. This indicates a laissez-faire approach to Alaskan squirrel conservation management. Aims. In an attempt to improve this current situation, we employ an ensemble of machine-learning algorithms as proposed improvement add-ons to the traditional components of conservation management plans toward a more state-of-the-art approach to squirrel conservation. Methods. We combined the Machine Learning algorithms TreeNet, CART, Random Forest, and Maxent with over 200 environmental and socio-economic predictors for the ensemble Super Species Distribution Models. These ensemble models were carried out for all squirrel species individually occurring in Alaska and a 600 km buffer area and two assemblage models combined: a) all species currently occurring only in Alaska and b) all species occurring in Alaska and the 600km buffer area. Key results. Most predicted distribution hotspots for squirrels in Alaska and the 600 km buffer area were observed near road and river systems (close to human activities) and the last glacial maximum refugia. Conclusions & Implications. Applying a machine learning ensemble distribution modeling framework to conservation management plans can add valuable science-based insights to better understand the landscape and species to be managed. This can also be highly valuable for lands not directly managed by conventional agencies, e.g., land managed by the military or Native communities.
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Supporting the cultural identity development of Indigenous youth: Findings from an Indigenous educators' community-of-practiceResearch reveals a positive impact on educational achievement for Indigenous students when their teachers are also Indigenous. The educational value of shared identity between students and teachers manifests in the form of increased student attendance rates, grades, and graduation rates. Fewer than 5% of public-school teachers in Alaska are Indigenous, while nearly 20% of students are Indigenous. Thus, it is unlikely that most Indigenous students in Alaska will experience a shared cultural identity with their teachers—nor would it be desirable, in this age of global mobility, for society to strive for teachers and students to share cultural identity in all instances. Yet it is important to discern what teaching practices and teacher dispositions support the cultural identity development (CID) of Indigenous children. This project brought together Indigenous educators from across Alaska to critically examine their practice as educators and to seek answers to the research question. Utilizing a collaborative autoethnographic framework, qualitative data were coded and analyzed to uncover answers to the research question. Key findings from this study indicate that teaching and using the local Indigenous language, shared cultural history documented in stories, and experiences related to the Land contribute to students’ CID. Furthermore, findings reveal that micro cultural validations, fleeting interactions between teachers and students, play a significant role in supporting the cultural identity development of Indigenous youth. Findings also suggest that Indigenous teachers are best positioned to discern the teaching practices that contribute to students’ cultural identity development.
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Forecasted changes to the timing of Pacific herring Clupea pallasii spawn in a warming oceanPacific herring Clupea pallasii are a critical commercial and subsistence fish species and play a keystone role in the ecology and culture of the North Pacific. The annual herring spawn, in which mature herring migrate nearshore to deposit eggs along the coastline, is an important event linked to the migration of seabirds and marine mammals as well as a subsistence harvest for Alaska Natives and First Nations in British Columbia. Previous work has suggested that environmental variables and broad teleconnection indices play a role in the magnitude and phenology of spawning; however, the effects of these drivers have not been examined in the context of future climate scenarios. Here, we modeled variability in the timing of herring spawn across British Columbia and Southeast Alaska using survey data from 1951-2022. We created a model using Pacific teleconnection indices, sea surface temperature (SST), tidal height, and lagged data to predict spawn date anomalies (SDAs) across 9 spawning regions. SDAs were significantly affected by the Oceanic Niño Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, SST, and lagged SDAs. We then used this model to predict SDAs using projected SST from climate models and bootstrapped teleconnection data from 2025-2100. Future herring spawn timing trends earlier on average with warming SSTs, although the magnitude is relatively small, occurring 9 d earlier on average by 2100. This changing phenology, though small, varied by region and may have ecosystem-level ramifications and create timing mismatch for migratory species. However, our findings also reinforce the importance of other physical factors not measured in this study, such as photoperiod, which drive herring spawn timing.
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Clam Size Explains Some Variability in Paralytic Shellfish Toxin Concentrations in Butter Clams (Saxidomus gigantea) in Southeast AlaskaHarmful algal blooms (HABs) are a reoccurring threat to subsistence and recreational shellfish harvest in Southeast Alaska. Recent Tribally led monitoring programs have enhanced understanding of the environmental drivers and toxicokinetics of shellfish toxins in the region; however, there is considerable variability in shellfish toxins in some species, which cannot be easily explained by seasonal bloom dynamics. Persistent concentrations of paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) in homogenized butter clam samples (n > 6, Saxidomus gigantea) have been observed in several communities, and relatively large spikes in concentrations are sometimes seen without Alexandrium observations or increased toxin concentrations in other species. In order to investigate potential sources of variability in PST concentrations from this subsistence species, we assessed individual concentrations of PSTs across a size gradient of butter clams during a period of relatively stable PST concentrations. We found that increasing concentrations of PSTs were significantly associated with larger clams using a log-linear model. We then simulated six clams randomly sampled from three size distributions, and we determined large clams had an outsized probability of contributing a significant proportion of the total toxicity in a six-clam homogenized sample. While our results were obtained during a period of low HAB activity and cannot be extrapolated to periods of intoxication or rapid detoxification, they have significant ramifications for both monitoring programs as well as subsistence and recreational harvesters.
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Advancing an integrated understanding of land–ocean connections in shaping the marine ecosystems of coastal temperate rainforest ecoregionsLand and ocean ecosystems are strongly connected and mutually interactive. As climate changes and other anthropogenic stressors intensify, the complex pathways that link these systems will strengthen or weaken in ways that are currently beyond reliable prediction. In this review we offer a framework of land–ocean couplings and their role in shaping marine ecosystems in coastal temperate rainforest (CTR) ecoregions, where high freshwater and materials flux result in particularly strong land–ocean connections. Using the largest contiguous expanse of CTR on Earth—the Northeast Pacific CTR (NPCTR)—as a case study, we integrate current understanding of the spatial and temporal scales of interacting processes across the land–ocean continuum, and examine how these processes structure and are defining features of marine ecosystems from nearshore to offshore domains. We look ahead to the potential effects of climate and other anthropogenic changes on the coupled land–ocean meta-ecosystem. Finally, we review key data gaps and provide research recommendations for an integrated, transdisciplinary approach with the intent to guide future evaluations of and management recommendations for ongoing impacts to marine ecosystems of the NPCTR and other CTRs globally. In the light of extreme events including heatwaves, fire, and flooding, which are occurring almost annually, this integrative agenda is not only necessary but urgent.
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Data Submission Package for Manuscript 'Progress on the world's primate hotspots and coldspots: Modeling ensemble Super SDMs in cloud-computers based on digital citizen-science Big Data and 200+ predictors for more sustainable conservation planning'2Describing where distribution hotspots and coldspots are located with certainty is crucial for any science-based species management and governance. Thus, here we created the world’s first Super Species Distribution Models (SDMs) including all primate species and the best-available predictor set. These Super SDMs are conducted using modern Machine Learning ensembles like Maxent, TreeNet, RandomForest, CART, CART Boosting and Bagging, and MARS with the utilization of cloud supercomputers (as an add-on option for more powerful models). For the global cold/ hotspot models, we obtained global distribution data from www.GBIF.org (approx. 420,000 raw occurrence records) and utilized the world’s largest environmental predictor set of 201 layers. For this analysis, all occurrences have been merged into one multi-species (400+ species) pixel-based analysis. We quantified the global primate hotspots for Central and Northern South America, West Africa, East Africa, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and Southern Africa. The global primate coldspots are Antarctica, the Arctic, most temperate regions, and Oceania past the Wallace line. We additionally described all these modeled hotspots/coldspots and discussed reasons for a quantified understanding of where the world’s primates occur (or not). This shows us where the focus for most future research and conservation management efforts should be, using state-of-the-art digital data indication tools with reason. Those areas should be considered of the highest conservation priority, ideally following ‘no killing zones’ and sustainable land stewardship approaches if primates are to have a chance of survival.
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Data Submission Package for Manuscript 'Progress on the world's primate hotspots and coldspots: Modeling ensemble Super SDMs in cloud-computers based on digital citizen-science Big Data and 200+ predictors for more sustainable conservation planning'Describing where distribution hotspots and coldspots are located with certainty is crucial for any science-based species management and governance. Thus, here we created the world’s first Super Species Distribution Models (SDMs) including all primate species and the best-available predictor set. These Super SDMs are conducted using modern Machine Learning ensembles like Maxent, TreeNet, RandomForest, CART, CART Boosting and Bagging, and MARS with the utilization of cloud supercomputers (as an add-on option for more powerful models). For the global cold/ hotspot models, we obtained global distribution data from www.GBIF.org (approx. 420,000 raw occurrence records) and utilized the world’s largest environmental predictor set of 201 layers. For this analysis, all occurrences have been merged into one multi-species (400+ species) pixel-based analysis. We quantified the global primate hotspots for Central and Northern South America, West Africa, East Africa, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and Southern Africa. The global primate coldspots are Antarctica, the Arctic, most temperate regions, and Oceania past the Wallace line. We additionally described all these modeled hotspots/coldspots and discussed reasons for a quantified understanding of where the world’s primates occur (or not). This shows us where the focus for most future research and conservation management efforts should be, using state-of-the-art digital data indication tools with reason. Those areas should be considered of the highest conservation priority, ideally following ‘no killing zones’ and sustainable land stewardship approaches if primates are to have a chance of survival.
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Seismic site response, liquefaction-induced lateral spreading and impact of seasonal frost on pile foundations in cold regionsPermafrost sites are experiencing significant changes due to anthropogenic activities and climate change, leading to substantial variations in soil dynamic properties and increased seismic risks. The associated geohazards, including differential settlement, slope instability, and liquefaction of degraded, unconsolidated materials in seismically active warm permafrost regions, pose substantial threats to the built infrastructure. This study aims to assess the seismic site response of warm permafrost sites and analyze the impact of seasonal frost on liquefaction-induced lateral spreading and pile foundation behavior in cold regions. Northway Airport, Alaska, was used as the study site to characterize permafrost conditions, while the Slana River site and the newly constructed bridge along the Tok Cut-Off were selected as the prototype for investigating liquefaction-induced lateral spread and its impact on pile foundations. Geophysical testing methods, including Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW), Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectra Ratio (HVSR) method of ambient noise, and Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT), were used to map the shear wave velocity profiles. A one-dimensional equivalent linear analysis assesses site response across multiple seismic hazard levels, accounting for frozen and thawed conditions. Meanwhile, a three-dimensional finite element modeling approach, i.e., OpenSees, simulates ground liquefaction and the interactions between pile foundations and liquefiable soils under varying conditions of seasonal frost depth and soil properties. The results from this study show that, in degraded permafrost areas, changes in shear wave velocity (Vs) due to thawing significantly influence ground motion characteristics during seismic events. Seasonal frost depth and soil permeability emerged as critical factors in affecting liquefaction-induced lateral ground spreading, with lower soil permeability and greater frost thickness increasing liquefaction susceptibility and resulting in a larger amount of ground lateral spread. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that seasonal frost can substantially reduce ground lateral spreading. However, it can also increase internal forces such as shear force and bending moment in bridge pile foundations and form additional plastic hinges, complicating the seismic design of deep foundations. These findings highlight the need to understand comprehensively permafrost degradation-induced changes in soil dynamic properties in cold regions. This study proposes a framework for assessing permafrost degradation's impact on the seismic site response. It offers new insights for engineers and policymakers to develop effective strategies for constructing and retrofitting resilient infrastructure and mitigating the hazards in seismically active cold regions.
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A range extension for Carex sartwellii in Interior AlaskaMean annual temperatures and growing season length have been increasing in northern latitudes. This has impacted permafrost thaw and the water balance of northern regions, resulting in a pattern of drying lakes in the Yukon Flats, Alaska. As lakes dry, they expose lake sediments to colonization by terrestrial vegetation. Recent interest in the terrestrial response to climate change and its effects on ecosystem services led to the formation of the Yukon River Basin project. As a part of this project, we studied plant succession and diversity in the drying lake basins. In the course of our field work we encountered a sedge we believed to be previously undocumented in Alaska. Our documentation of Sartwell’s Sedge, Carex sartwellii, on nine drying lakes during fieldwork in the central Yukon Flats, Alaska, represents a range extension for this species. Previously, its range extended as far northwest as Yukon, Canada, with a reported, but lost collection, from Alaska in 1895. Two earlier collections from the Yukon Flats have been verified; one was misidentified as Carex praegracilis until 2007. Carex sartwellii’s assumed absence from Alaska and Yukon flora, misidentification of an earlier collection, and the remoteness of the Yukon Flats may have contributed to the rarity of its collection. In Alaska this species is morphologically similar to C. praegracilis, but can be distinguished using traits of the perigynia, leaf sheaths, and the production of true vegetative culms. This sedge was found extensively in alkaline drying lake basins, which are similar environments to those found during the Pleistocene. Many of the species that occurred with C. sartwellii in lake basin plant communities have been documented in paleo reconstructions of plants from the Beringian steppe. The Yukon Flats are botanically understudied as a region in Alaska and further research should focus on identifying these unique relict plant communities in the Yukon Flats and their distribution along historic Beringia into Yukon. This would likely lead to more collections of C. sartwellii and expand our knowledge of its distribution and ecology.
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Extraction of rare earth elements from coal ash using supercritical CO₂The increasing demand for rare earth elements (REEs) as critical components in modern technologies has led to growing interest in their efficient recovery from alternative sources. Coal ash, a waste product generated from coal combustion, has been identified as a potential reservoir of valuable REEs with reported REE concentrations varying between 270 and 1480 ppm. In this research paper, we investigate the recovery of REEs from three coal ashes: anthracite, bituminous, sub-bituminous using environmentally benign supercritical fluid (SCF) carbon dioxide (CO2). Additionally, the effect of tributyl phosphate (TBP) and nitric acid (HNO3) as complexing agents is explored to enhance the extraction efficiency. The advantage of this option over conventional solvent extraction methods includes minimization of liquid waste generation, solute separation, and rapid reaction rates. Supercritical fluids (SCFs) can penetrate and transport solutes from different matrices due to its high diffusivity, low viscosity, and liquid-like solvating. CO2 provides a good option as an efficient solvent since it has the benefit of being easy to obtain and has a medium critical constant (Tc = 31.1oC and Pc = 7.38 MPa), as compared to other solvents. Additionally, CO2 is inert and stable (chemically and radio chemically), inexpensive, easy to supply at high purity, and it is environmentally friendly and widely used. The experimental work involved the optimization of process parameters, including temperature, pressure, and solvent-to-solid ratio, to ensure maximum REE recovery while minimizing environmental impact. The optimum extraction conditions for anthracite ash were determined to be 60°C, 1100 psi, 120 minutes residence time, 250 rpm agitation rate, solid to chelating agent ratio 1:10 and TBP to HNO3 ratio 1:1, with corresponding 80% extraction efficiency which is 230 ppm. The optimum extraction conditions for bituminous ash were determined to be 60°C, 1100 psi, 120 minutes residence time, 250 rpm agitation rate, solid to chelating agent ratio 1:10 and TBP to HNO3 ratio 1:1, with corresponding 49% extraction efficiency which is 290 ppm. The optimum extraction conditions for sub-bituminous ash were determined to be 60°C, 1835 psi, 120 minutes residence time, 250 rpm agitation rate, solid to chelating agent ratio 1:10 and TBP to HNO3 ratio 1:2, with corresponding 58% extraction efficiency which is 149 ppm.
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Combining Alaska forage fish data from research surveys and predator diets to assess forage fish response to climatic regime shiftsForage fish play a crucial role in the marine ecosystems of Alaska through the transfer of energy from lower trophic levels to marine predators. Understanding and quantifying Alaskan forage fish responses to rapid climatic shifts is needed to inform adaptive management strategies under a warmer and more variable future in Alaska. However, data on the occurrence and abundance of forage fish in Alaska are limited due to the diversity of life history strategies and patchy distribution that make their capture in fisheries-independent surveys difficult. In this thesis, I address current gaps in the data available on forage fish through the publication of an Alaska Forage Fish Database (AFFD) comprised of data from trawls, beach seines, and the diets of predator consuming forage fish, collected by a variety of contributing agencies and organizations. This data compilation effort resulted in a database containing forage fish abundance data from 461,449 sampling events spanning the years 1953 - 2023. Using the compiled dataset, I then assess large-scale spatial and temporal patterns in the occurrence of Pacific capelin (Mallotus catervarius), Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii), and sand lance (Ammodytes spp.) in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska. Interannual trends in the encounter probability for each species, based on models fit to data from fisheries surveys, groundfish diets, and seabird diets, exhibit coherence in large-scale changes among observation types in the Gulf of Alaska (1972 - 2023) and Bering Sea (1980 - 2023). I compare the distribution of species’ encounter probability across decadal climate stanzas and demonstrate the differences in distribution of species during the 2014 - 2019 heatwaves compared to prior stanzas, as well as reoccurring distribution patterns in response to similar climatic characteristics among stanzas. Findings from this thesis facilitate an expanded understanding of forage fish population dynamics and spatial distribution in response to rapid climatic shifts.
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Meaning as process and product: hybridizing metamodern hylosemiotics with postmodern and contemporary American poetryThis thesis expands on Jason Storm’s theory of metamodern hylosemiotics by addressing contemporary American poetic strategies and their relationship to modernism and postmodernism, especially through Cole Swenson and David St. John’s definition of the “American hybrid.” In modifying Storm’s theoretical system, I offer a hybridized semiotics that locates meaning both in the information or “content” inferred through the act of reading and the related processes of interacting with the text. Through readings of poetry by John Ashbery, Terrance Hayes, Clark Coolidge, and William Stafford, I show that hybridizing semiotics is not only necessary for the consistency and viability of metamodern theory in response to the hybrid poetry we see today, but also provides a useful strategy for approaching poetry in general.
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An investigation of raciolinguistic ideologies in Japanese rap battlesThis thesis interrogates what are normally implicit linguistic ideologies surrounding who is a legitimate speaker of Japanese and how it implicates a relationship between ethnicity, nationality, culture, and language. Using a corpus of recorded rap battles from YouTube in which one of the rappers is known to be of non-Japanese or partially non-Japanese heritage, discourse analysis demonstrates how race, foreignness and otherness are made relevant in disses of opponents’ rap skill. The history and characteristics of Japanese rap are outlined with an eye toward how the conventions of the musical genre reflect preoccupations with creating a distinctly Japanese form of an international musical style. Rap battles, as an improvisational, live competition, are a performative genre of verbal art—all participants offer their words up for evaluation by an audience. Drawing from Bauman’s theory of verbal art as performance, it is argued that rap battles are a place where Japanese social actors evaluate not only poetic form but also appeal to implicitly shared cultural values. The generic conventions of battles allow them to be a site where confrontation and identity work can be much more overt than in everyday and more formal types of social interaction. Analysis centers on rappers who are recognized as competent if not highly skilled and whose Japanese is indistinguishable from people who fit cultural ideals of Japaneseness, yet are known to be “Other”. It is demonstrated that disses make overt a cultural ideology in which Japanese identity is the result of an alignment between “native” linguistic fluency, nationality, ethnicity, and cultural competence. In this decidedly “Japanese” form of verbal art, rappers are able to draw upon and make explicit this logic to diss or negatively evaluate their opponent by drawing relationships between any of these dimensions of the model and rap performance.
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Looking North: Classroom engagements into the relevance and context of a rapidly changing ArcticWe need to save the Arctic not because of the polar bears, and not because it is the most beautiful place in the world, but because our very survival depends upon it.—Lewis Gordon Pugh, as quoted in Mead (Citation2022) The Arctic is emerging as an increasingly relevant and rapidly changing region of the world. A changing climate has brought increased attention to the dynamic and strategic nature of the North, but the Arctic has always been a homeland to a variety of distinct cultures and a unique ecosystem. Arctic imaginaries of an untouched and wild North continue to flourish in common discourse perpetuating colonized notions of this place. The way we imagine the North matters as we grapple with complex issues of interdependence, globalization, decolonization, extractive economies, and climate crisis. This article presents resources for an inquiry unit in which students analyze the question, “Why does the Arctic matter?” to construct an argument. Supporting questions, formative performance tasks, and primary source material are included to scaffold student inquiry. This inquiry is designed for secondary students and has been aligned to geography standards from the C3 Framework for Social Studies State Standards (Swan Citation2017). An inquiry design model blueprint has been included in Figure 1. Students are invited to challenge common notions of the North and to engage in thinking about the relevance of the Arctic regions while exploring examples of international cooperation and a variety of cultures through primary and secondary source documents. The emerging and accelerating unique challenges of the region make it worthy of our collective attention and exposure for students within and far beyond the Arctic.
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An analytical approach for simulating effects of avalanches on mountain goat population dynamics: Implications for management and conservationMountain environments with snow avalanche hazard cover about 6% of Earth’s land area and occur on all continents. Whereas human risks associated with avalanche hazard have been widely studied, little is known about how avalanche activity affects population dynamics in mountain wildlife. Globally, 32 species of mountain ungulates across 70 countries occupy avalanche-prone terrain. Avalanches comprise the leading cause of mortality in coastal Alaskan mountain goats (mean = 36%, range = 23 - 65%, depending on area), and disproportionately remove prime-aged individuals from populations. The implications of such rates and patterns of mortality on population growth rate are likely to be significant given the species’ low reproductive productivity, but further clarity is needed. To fill this knowledge gap, we developed a sex- and age-specific population modeling approach that integrates both reproduction and mortality to simulate the effects of avalanche-caused mortality on population growth rate across a range of empirically-observed states of avalanche-caused mortality (minimum, mean, maximum). Simulations were conducted to illustrate model functionality, and also provide insight about potential avalanche impacts on population demographic processes. For example, when severe avalanche years occur populations can experience significant additive mortality and declines (up to 15%). Due to low reproductive rates and slow life-history strategy of the species, such impacts can lead to long demographic recovery times (up to 11 years). From a species conservation perspective, such impacts are striking, and highlight the utility of employing a quantitative modeling approach to predict possible effects of avalanches on mountain ungulate population dynamics and viability. Our work explicitly builds upon recent findings about the importance of avalanches on mountain-adapted animal populations, and associated implications for the cultural and ecological communities that depend on them.
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Centering community and joy through co-production: tracking the seasonal changes of Utqiaġvik’s spring whalingUsing mixed methods and multimedia approaches, I investigated the multigenerational perspectives and seasonal changes in Utqiaġvik’s spring whaling. As an Iñupiaq living in my home community of Utqiaġvik, it was important to me to center my community’s knowledge and Iñupiaq-led entities. I used various tools and resources such as conducting semi-directed interviews, hiring a local Iñupiaq videographer to take photos and videos of spring whaling preparations, and using observational data from the Alaska Arctic Observatory and Knowledge Hub. The interviews, conversations with local Iñupiat-led entities and whalers, and the observational data guided my research goals and objectives and, more importantly, determined what key whaling events to research and analyze. Here, I am combining these techniques and resources to address the seasonal changes of our spring whaling key events (e.g., breaking trail) in the context of coastal Iñupiaq communities of northern Alaska and how we can use observations from our Indigenous Knowledge holders to inform scientists and managers of what is happening during spring whaling. In my research, science communication and community engagement occurred concurrently. Therefore, my thesis presents two chapters and a video project, all using excerpts from the interviews and footage and photos from museum archives and the videographer. The two main objectives of this research were communicating the observations of seasonal changes of Utqiaġvik’s spring whaling and centering Inupiat voices and resources. This research embodies significant Indigenous Knowledge and centers hunter and whaler experiences. As an Iñupiaq resident of Utqiaġvik, I hope the research will uplift Indigenous Knowledge and center it in decision-making. Indigenous Knowledge is critical for understanding change in the Arctic.