-
Sharing Revenues from the Outer Continental Shelf and Other Federal Lands
Matthew D. Berman and Karen White
-
ISER Map Alaska Economic Model: State Model Documentation Version A84.2: May 1984
Oliver Scott Goldsmith
-
Public Capital Formation in Alaska: Current Levels, Fiscal Effects, and Future Prospects
Oliver Scott Goldsmith, Dona Lehr, and Phillip Rowe
-
The Village High Schools: Views of School Board Presidents
Judith Kleinfield, G. Williamson McDiarmid, and Sharon Young
-
The Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Program: Economic Effects and Public Attitudes
Gunnar Knapp, Oliver Scott Goldsmith, Jack Kruse, and Gordon S. Erickson
-
Sensitivity of Ram Model Projections to Key Assumptions
Gunnar Knapp and Kathy May MarkAnthony
The Rural Alaska Model (RAM Model) was developed by the Institute of Social and Economic Research for use in projecting population and employment impacts of Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) petroleum development on rural Alaskan communities. This study examines the sensitivity of the RAM model's projections to a variety of input assumptions. The study results provide and indication of the kinds of uncertainties associated with the model's projections as well as a feel for which assumptions are relatively more significant as sources of uncertainty. The study results provide a starting point for planned review and revisions of the RAM model. Because the RAM model assumes that population is closely related to employment opportunities in many rural Alaska communities, those assumptions which directly affect projected employment strongly affect the level of projected population. Among these are assumptions about exogenous employment, support and government employment multiplier, and the trends in levels of local government employment as they are affected by future state government expenditures and revenues. Assumptions about migration are also highly important for RAM model base case projections. At present, the RAM model allows for a wide range of assumptions about the degree of migration induced by increases or decreases in employment opportunities and the level of annual turnover in population independent of changes in employment opportunities. Our sensitivity tests indicate that unless a high degree of annual turnover in population is assumed, the RAM model tends to "over adjust" population in response to changes in employment demand, causing projected population to cycle. We plan to address this problem in future revisions of the model. Most of the assumptions of the RAM model appear to affect the base case and impact case projections in similar ways. As a result, even when the model's base case projections are highly sensitive to model assumptions, the projected impacts of OCS sales (the difference between the impact case the base case) tend to be considerably less sensitive to model assumptions. In effect, we may be able to make relatively accurate projections about the effects of OCS development even when we are quite uncertain about other changes which may take place in the community-- especially when the scale of projected OCS development is relatively small.
-
Community Economic and Demographic Systems Analysis of the Norton Basin Lease Sale 100
Gunnar Knapp, Kathy May MarkAnthony, Will Nebesky, and Mark Wildermuth
In this report, we develop a description of the economy and population of Nome. In addition, we examine possible impacts of the Norton Basin Lease Offering (OCS Sale 100) upon the population and economy of Nome. We prepared the projections using the Institute of Social and Economic Research's Rural Alaska Model (RAM model). Our model projections suggest that development of OCS 100 would have a relatively small impact upon Nome, increasing resident employment by a maximum of 8 percent and resident population by a maximum of 5 percent. However, this result depends upon numerous assumptions. Changing some of these assumptions could change the projected impacts of OCS Sale 100. For example, we assumed that all offshore OCS jobs were held by nonresidents. If local residents obtained some of the offshore jobs, or if some of these workers chose to settle in Nome, the impacts of the sale would be greater. In addition , our model does not consider possible indirect effects of the lease sale such as additional local government revenues due to taxation of onshore oil facilities.
-
Cost of Living Comparisons: A Method for Studying Different Economic Systems
Gunnar Knapp and Monica Thomas
-
St. George Basin and North Aleutian Basin Economic and Demographic Systems Impacts Analysis
Gunnar Knapp, Judy Zimicki, Teresa Hull, Will Nebesky, and Kathy May MarkAnthony
In this report, we present descriptions and "base case" projections of population and employment for the communities of Unalaska and Cold Bay. We also present projections of the impacts on population and employment in these communities which might result from the proposed St. George Basin and North Aleutian Shelf OCS Lease offerings. The future development of Unalaska is highly uncertain. Our projections suggest that the population of Unalaska in the year 2000 could range from as low as 900-only a little larger than the 1980 resident population- to as high as 4,600. Future development of the crab and bottomfish industries will be the key factor affecting the future size of the community. Unalaska is envisioned primarily as a marine support base for future OCS development. Our projections suggest that the relative impacts of development resulting from the proposed lease sales would be relatively small. Development of both sale areas might increase population and employment by approximately 15 percent during the peak year of 1993. These projections are based on the assumption that only workers associated with the shore base would become residents of Unalaska. Cold Bay is primarily a transient community based around aviation and communication facilities. In the "base case," the resident population may fall by about one-third due to future cutbacks in employment by the FAA, the U.S. Air Force, and RCA. However, OCS development in the Navarin Basin might reverse this decline, bringing population back to approximately current levels. Additional development from development of the St. George Basin or North ALeutian Shelf OC sale areas could further increase population by as much as 40 percent, Cold Bay would still remain a small community of approximately the same size as it was during the Vietnam war years. In addition to our descriptions and projections for Unalaska and Cold Bay, we have provided descriptions for Sand Point, St. Paul, St. George, and Nelson Lagoon. However, we don not expect these communities to be directly affected by future OCS development in the St. George or North Aleutian Shelf lease sale areas.
-
Technical and Research Papers on the Challenge of Alaska Native Hire
Theodore Lane and Cheryl K. Thomas
-
The Fiscal Impact of the Knik Arm Crossing: The Municipality of Anchorage
Dona Lehr, Lee Husky, and Phil Rowe
Printing is not supported at the primary Gallery Thumbnail page. Please first navigate to a specific Image before printing.
