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Economic Projections for Alaska and the Southern Railbelt to 2020 - Reports and Summaries
Scott Goldsmith
The Alaska economy will continue to be dominated by commodity producing industries as well as tourism, national defense, and the movement of international freight. High labor costs, sparse and expensive infrastructure, small market size and great distance from market share barriers against the development of significant processing and manufacturing for export. Petroleum, mining, and tourism hold the most potential for employment growth through expansion of the resource base. Growth of the timber and seafood industries will result from more intensive exploitation of the resource coupled with the expansion of value-added processing. Because of its dependence on commodity-producing industries, the Alaska economy will continue to experience localized business cycles as prices in these industries respond to world market conditions. Although the existence of these cycles can be anticipated, their timing cannot be forecast. Consequently these projections have the appearance of smoothness and continuity which is unlikely to be the actual pattern over time. One cycle which can be anticipated would be associated with the construction of a gas pipeline to bring North Slope gas to market. This would cause a significant construction boom followed by a transition to a much smaller operational work force. In the High Case projection, this appears as a cycle similar to, albeit smaller than, the cycle associated with construction of the trans-Alaska oil pipeline in the 1970s.
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Teaching Economics to Russian Students: Some Preliminary Observations
Gunnar Knapp
In February 1993, I taught a one-week intensive course in "Fundamentals of Market Economics" to thirty-four first and second-year students at Magadan International Pedagogical University in Magadan, Russia. The students, who were enrolled in a new degree program in "Economics and Management," had had only limited previous exposure to the topics usually covered in introductory economics courses in America. My preliminary conclusion from this brief experience in teaching economics to Russian students is that basic principles of economic theory can be taught to Russian students in much the same way as they are taught to American students. Russian students were very interested in concepts of market economics, and seemed able to learn and apply them no less well than American students. Their attitudes towards market mechanisms appear to be generally positive, if slightly less so than for American students. However, their experience with market economics is much more limited than that of American students, at both the macroeconomic and microeconomic levels. In particular, it is difficult to teach about fiscal and monetary policy and institutions to students in a country where both policy and institutions are highly unstable or nonexistent. Nevertheless, Russian students are able to recognize the market forces which are increasingly becoming part of Russian life. Asked to suggest a new product or service which had come into existence in Russia as a result of market signals, one student answered: "Now you can telephone for home delivery of vodka."
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Western Alaska Fuel Cooperative, Inc. (WAFC) Business Plan
Eric Larson, Alexandra Hill, and Teresa Hull
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Alaska Salmon Industry and Japan
N/A N/A
Until the late 1980s, Alaska and Canadian wild salmon were the only significant sources of high-quality salmon available to Japan, and Alaska and Canada accounted for an overwhelming share of Japanese salmon imports. That has changed. Japanese processors and consumers have begun to treat farmed Chilean coho as a viable substitute for sockeye. In the past few years, imports from Chile have grown substantially. Chile and other salmon farming countries have the potential to vastly expand their production and their exports to Japan. Japanese imports of salmon from Russia have also grown rapidly. As a result of these changes, the U.S. import share has fallen substantially, from 85 percent in 1987 to less than 60 percent in 1992. We have suffered a very substantial decline in our market share in just a few years. New patterns of supply are not the only changes in the Japanese salmon market. Changes are also happening in consumer demand Japanese consumers, like consumers all over the world, are increasingly demanding higher quality and more variety in the food products that they eat. They are beginning to eat more meat products. This presentation includes graphical data regarding various aspects of harvests, prices, exports for fresh and frozen salmon. Presented at a forum on the Alaska Fishing Industry and Japan at the Anchorage Museum of History and Art, Thursday, September 23, 1993.
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Changes in Alaska Pollock Management
Terrence Smith, Gunnar Knapp, and Matthew Berman
Pollock are the most common groundfish off Alaska, with the 1991 harvest exceeding 2.2 billion pounds - or about 70 percent of the entire groundfish harvest. The North Pacific Fisheries Management Council recently recommended changing the start of the second half of the season from June 1 to August 15, when the fish are heavier and better quality. Before making its recommendations, the council asked iSER to examine potential economic effects of delaying the second half of the pollock season and of establishing exclusive registration in the offshore fisheries of the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands and the Gulf of Alaska. This summary provides a brief overview of the findings from interviews with fishermen and processors that were used to support an Alaskan economic model aimed at projecting effects of potential changes.
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Natural Resource Depletion and Social Income Accounting: Sustainable Income in Petroleum-Dependent Economies
Matthew D. Berman, Eric Larson, and Bradford Tuck
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Technical Report 148 - Final Technical Report Hope Basin Socioeconomic Baseline Study
Ernest Jr. Burch, Edward Busch, Robert Gal, Lee Gorsuch, Teresa Hull, Steven McNabb, Paul Ongtooguk, Linda Rinaldi, and Judith Brogan
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Culture Change and Identity Among Alaska Natives: Retaining Control
Ann Fienup-Riordan
To date, Alaska Natives have changed in some respects and remained the same in other as a result of exposure to and interaction with the non-Native world.Like other Native Americans, they have been much more motivated to preserve what they can of their traditional view of the world in their reactions to missionaries ad agents of change in general than has been appreciated. This paper gives a general outline of culture change and changes in personal and group identity among Alaska Natives. It draws from the recent history of the Yup'ik-speaking residents of western Alaska, an area of the state where this process has been relatively recent and where social problems associated with rapid culture change are at present particularly intense.
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Homer Fiscal Planning Model: Background Report
Scott Goldsmith
Homer is a first-class city of about 4,000 residents, located in the Kenai Peninsula Borough. The city provides a variety of local government services including police and fire protection, roads maintenance, and parks and recreation as well as a library, but excluding schools (provided by the Borough). These services and general government expenses are financed primarily through sales and property taxes and transfers from the state. City expenditures increased rapidly through most of the 1980s, interrupted only during the recession years of 1988 and 1989. An economic boom occurring at the end of the decade has now passed, and the ability of the city to fund services is being constrained both by the local economic base·and the budget problems facing state government. The 1992 Homer budget reflects a sharp reduction from the previous year, with departments planning layoffs and service cutbacks. Aggressive fiscal planning in future years will be required to minimize the negative effects of budget shortfalls in the coming years. This document provides information to assist the community in addressing this issue.
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Safe Landing: A Fiscal Strategy for the 1990s
Scott Goldsmith
Alaska is poised for either a safe landing or a nose dive. Whether we land safely or crash depends on how Alaskans deal with declining oil revenue. Since oil began flowing from the Prudhoe Bay field 15 years ago, Alaska’s government and economy have come to depend on state taxes and royalties from oil production. Oil revenue makes up 85 percent of the state’s general revenue, and it creates 30 percent of Alaskans’ personal income. But North Slope production is now declining as the giant Prudhoe Bay field ages. Luckily, Alaska has the resources it needs to make the difficult transition. This paper outlines a comprehensive but flexible strategy for moving Alaska through the 1990s with a minimum of economic damage and into the next century with a government that is smaller but still able to provide essential services and support a healthy economy.
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What We Learned about Alaska's Finances, 1989-1992
Scott Goldsmith, Lee Gorsuch, Alexandra Hill, Teresa Hull, Matthew Berman, Jay Hogan, Mary Lou Madden, Linda Leask, and Dalsfoist Monette
The principal series author, Scott Goldsmith, is an ISER economist with 17 years’ experience analyzing state finances. Lee Gorsuch, ISER director, guides the design and presentation of the series. Other contributors include Alexandra Hill and Teresa Hull, ISER research associates, Matthew Berman, ISER economist, Jay Hogan, former director of the Alaska Division of Budget Review, and Mary Lou Madden, currently with the Alaska Commission on Post-Secondary Education. Linda Leask edits the series and Monette Dalsfoist prepares layout and graphics. Many state officials and private citizens also helped us enormously by reviewing drafts of the papers, and we thank them all. The series to date has been financed by a grant from ARCO Alaska. It will continue in 1993 with grants from several Alaska businesses.
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Cost of Health Care In Alaska
Scott Goldsmith and Alexandra Hill
Health care in Alaska cost an estimated $1.6 billion in fiscal 1991. That’s 50 percent more than it cost to operate Alaska’s public schools in 1990 ($1 billion). It’s close to what the military spent for its bases and personnel and equipment in Alaska in 1989 ($1.9 billion). It equals one-third of the money on deposit in Alaska banks and credit unions in 1990 ($4.8 billion). It’s nearly half of what Alaskans spent at grocery stores, restaurants, and other retail establishments in 1987 ($3.6 billion). This Research Summary details fiscal 1991 health care spending in Alaska. It also looks at why health care costs have escalated and how spending in Alaska compares with the national average. We define health care spending to include all spending for personal care, program administration, and public health programs. We did not estimate spending for construction of health facilities and for medical research. The information presented here was developed by Alexandra Hill and Scott Goldsmith of ISER and the state’s Health Resources and Access Task Force.
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