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The Economic Benefits of Public Transportation in Anchorage
Mary Killorin, Eric Larson, and Scott Goldsmith
Public transportation in Anchorage benefits transit riders and the entire community in many different ways: All forms of transit provide access to jobs, medical services, social services, shopping, recreation, and participation in the community. This enables more people to work and to spend more in the local economy. The bus system, AnchorRIDES, and Share-A-Ride (including the Van Pool) programs enable many car owners to use these alternatives instead of driving. This reduces the number of vehicles on the roads and, consequently, the costs of traffic congestion, pollution, traffic collisions, parking, and traffic services. People Mover and AnchorRIDES buses also provide essential low-cost transportation services for workers, students, tourists, low- income residents, people with disabilities, and elderly residents. This improves the quality of life and economic well-being of these groups. Public transit also contributes to economic development, improved environmental quality, better public health, land use, and improved quality of life. This report describes and quantifies many types of public transit benefits. Sections II and III provide an overview of the current level of transit services. Sections IV, V, and VI present the estimation of benefits to users, society, and the community. Section VII discusses how benefits would increase as a result of different types of ridership increases. Section VIII presents a calculation of the economic significance of the inputs used in the operation of the transit system.
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Economic Impacts of BSAI Crab Rationalization on Kodiak Fishing Employment and Earnings and Kodiak Businesses: A Preliminary Analysis.
Gunnar Knapp
This study was requested by the City of Kodiak to analyze how crab rationalization has affected crab fishing jobs and earnings of Kodiak residents and sales of Kodiak businesses. The study is limited to these issues. It does not address many other important issues raised by crab rationalization. There are significant challenges in studying economic effects of crab rationalization on Kodiak. There are important differences between crab fisheries, and within each fishery there are differences in boat sizes, vessel ownership, quota allocation, and many other factors which affect how quota is fished. Many factors besides rationalization affect crab fisheries, and many factors besides crab fisheries affect Kodiak’s economy—making it difficult to identify the specific effects of crab rationalization on Kodiak. Since rationalization began in the 2005/06 season, there have been very rapid and dramatic changes in the crab fisheries. Between the 2004/05 and 2005/06 seasons, vessel registration declined by about two-thirds for the Bristol Bay Red King Crab (BBR) fishery and by about one-half for the Bering Sea Snow Crab (BSS) fishery.1
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Socioeconomic Review of Alaska's Bristol Bay Region
Marie Lowe
This report provides a “desktop” socioeconomic and sociocultural review of the Bristol Bay Region prepared for the North Star Group by the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at the University of Alaska Anchorage. Using secondary sources, the report characterizes the local population and its history by examining events that have influenced social change and how locals have adapted to that change. It reviews current social and economic issues in the region to provide a context for potential future mining development. Part 1 presents a regional overview with a description of Bristol Bay’s cultural history, demography, economy, institutions, and development context. Part 2 provides a more detailed overview of Bristol Bay’s sub-regions, accompanied by statistics about participation in subsistence activities, commercial fishing and other employment, and local use of public assistance.
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Rose Urban Rural Exchange Program Evaluation 2006 Teacher Training Part 1
G. Williamson McDiarmid and Rosyland Frazier
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Rose Urban Rural Exchange Program Evaluation 2006 Sister School
G. Williamson McDiarmid, Rosyland Frazier, Alexandra Hill, Darla Siver, and Meghan Wilson
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Effects of Rising Utility Costs on Alaska Households 200 - 2006
Ben Saylor and Sharman Haley
Households in remote rural places face utility costs 50% higher now than in 2000. In Anchorage those costs are up 35% and in other large or road-system communities about 39%. The share of household income going to utilities is also up. Utility costs in urban and rural areas are now anywhere from about 3% to 10% of income for the typical household. Those are median figures for all households. Utilities take a much bigger share of income among low-income households. Utility costs now amount to more than a third of income among low-income households in remote places. These are among the findings of an ISER analysis of how rising energy prices have increased utility costs for Alaska households since 2000.
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BBNA Pebble Mine Technical Assistance Project - FInal Report (Volumes I-III)
Suzanne Sharp, Steve Colt, Steve Langdon, and Meg King
This report summarizes and incorporates various materials prepared for the Bristol Bay Native Association (BBNA) under contractual agreement with the Institute o f Social and Economic Research (ISER) o f the University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA). The project is known as the BBNA-UAA/ISER Pebble Mine Technical Assistance Project. The project period was September l, 2005 through November 30, 2006. The Pebble Mine Technical Assistance Project was funded by U.S. Department of Environmental Protection through the Indian General Assistance Program (!GAP) for Alaska Native tribes. The funding was provided to the Bristol Bay Native Association through an "unmet needs" grant designed to provide technical assistance to the Bristol Bay tribes and tribal members in addressing environmental quality and subsistence issues associated with the proposed Pebble Mine project. The proposed Pebble Mine would be located in the Kvichak River drainage, home of the world's most productive sockeye salmon fishery and possibly draw water from the Nushagak-Mulchatna River watershed as well. This proposed development raises major issues related to environmental quality o f the lands and waters customarily utilized by Bristol Bay tribes situated in the Kvichak and Nushagak-Mulchatna River drainages. Bristol Bay tribal members from local communities in the vicinity of the proposed Pebble Mine project make substantial subsistence use of natural resources in the area which sustain the nutritional, economic, social and cultural health of tribal members. The purpose of the project was to provide technical assistance to the tribes to allow them to fully comprehend the nature of the Pebble Mine project and its potential impacts on the environment and their subsistence uses, and to enhance their capacity to fully participate in the review and permitting process should permits to develop the Pebble Mine be sought. The purpose of participation is to insure that protection for the environment and subsistence uses that depend on a healthy and productive ecosystem are fully addressed in the project review process.
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Task 1 and 2 Reports to the Regulatory Commission of Alaska: Affordability Factors and Affordability Standards
Bradford Tuck and Lisa Schwartzberg
Because affordability is essentially an issue of fairness, or equity, it is ultimately the task of the public policymaker to define “affordability” and to indicate factors to be considered in measuring “affordability.” We look first at factors that might be considered in discussing affordability. The FCC has addressed the issue of affordable universal service in some detail and has suggested principles that should be taken into account when policymakers attempt to determine affordable rates for telephone service. Major portions of that discussion are incorporated into Section II of the Task 1 report. Identification of potential variables that might be used to measure the factors influencing affordability is contained in Section III, and is organized around identified factors. Additional material is included in the appendix. Consideration of alternative affordability standards is incorporated in the present report, as well as suggestions we received from carriers in Section IV. Summary comments and observations are presented in Section V. Task 2 collected and analyzed a broad range of data, including extensive information from the 2000 U.S. Decennial Census and other U.S. sources, data from the Regulatory Commission of Alaska, survey results from Alaska Local Exchange Carriers, and other state sources.
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Economic Development Through State Ownership of Oil and Gas: Evaluating Alaska's Royalty-In-Kind Program
Matthew Berman
Government owners of petroleum subsurface rights often face constituent pressure to exercise control over the disposition of these resources in pursuit of economic development objectives. At the same time, states cannot simply dissipate the potential rent from their resources without losing a principal revenue source. The paper takes a retrospective look at the state of Alaska's policies and programs regarding disposition of oil and gas resources, focusing on the evolution of the royalty-in-kind program. It examines the relative success of different programs in achieving objectives of import substitution and value-added export relative to the cost in foregone revenue. The analysis leads to general conclusions about programs of this type, along with specific insights as the state prepares to embark on the biggest test yet related to the disposition of North Slope natural gas. Prepared for presentation to the Western Regional Science Association Annual Meeting, San Diego, California.
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Evaluation of the Alaska Interagency Aviation Safety Initiative
Matthew Berman, Stephanie Martin, and Alexandra Hill
Aviation crashes are the leading cause of occupational fatalities in Alaska. From 1990 through 1999, aviation crashes in Alaska caused 106 work-related pilot deaths. This rate is nearly five times the rate for U.S. pilots as a whole.1 In 2000, Congress passed legislation aimed at reducing the number of occupational aviation fatalities in Alaska by 50 percent for the years 2000 through 2009. This legislation created an interagency initiative—the Alaska Aviation Safety Initiative—to improve safety in Alaska through the combined efforts of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the National Transportation and Safety Board (NTSB), the NOAAs National Weather Service (NWS), and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH). The final Initiative tasks require the agencies to evaluate the programs created to promote aviation safety in Alaska. To that end, NIOSH contracted with the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at the University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA). The following report looks at programs, infrastructure changes, accidents and accident rates between 1997 and 2004. It addresses the following questions: • Has flying become safer in Alaska? • Which types of flying (e.g., general aviation, commuter vs. air taxi flights) are the most risky, and which have shown changes in safety? • Where in Alaska is it most risky to fly? Has this changed? • To what extent can the data show that specific programs are associated with improved safety?
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Evaluation of the Outcomes in Three Therapeutic Courts
Teresa White Carns, Susan McKelvie, Jenny Miller, Emily R. Marrs, Cassie Atwell, and Stephanie Martin
The legislature asked for this report when it created the Anchorage Felony DUI Court and the Bethel Therapeutic Court. The Department of Health and Social Services, Division of Behavioral Health, funded the evaluation at the request of the governor. Thus it is a report that exemplifies inter-branch collaboration on an important policy issue in the criminal justice system.
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Low Cost, Reliable Power: How Does Anchorage Compare?
Steve Colt
Costs of doing business in Alaska remain generally high, but the low cost and reliability of electric power in Anchorage has been a bright spot on the economic landscape—thanks largely to abundant supplies of natural gas from Cook Inlet and to creation of a unified power grid for the railbelt. This research summary presents data on the changing cost and reliability of electric power from Municipal Light and Power (ML&P)—one of Anchorage’s two electric utilities—from 1960 through 2004. It concludes with a brief discussion of the outlook for the utility, given rising natural gas prices.
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The Contribution of ANILCA to Alaska's Economy
Steve Colt
This paper presents an assessment of the economic contribution of ANILCA and ANILCA-protected ecosystems to Alaska’s economy. I consider the links between the conservation units designated by the Act and a healthy Alaska economy. The paper consists largely of synthesis and application of existing data and research. It does not consider global ecosystem services or other values that are not currently captured within the Alaska economy. ANILCA was a one-time “natural experiment.” It is not possible, therefore, to observe how the Alaska economy would have evolved absent ANILCA. This makes it difficult if not impossible to say that the Act itself “caused” much of anything. Instead, the best we can do is to say that the data are consistent – or inconsistent -- with certain broad hypotheses and conclusions.
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Spending Patterns of Selected Alaska Bear Viewers: Preliminary Results from a Survey
Steve Colt and Darcy Dugan
The Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at the University of Alaska Anchorage developed and conducted a Web-based survey of 219 traveling parties who went on a bear viewing excursion from the Homer area during the summer of 2004. All of the bear viewing excursions were taken with one business. The survey was developed in February 2005 and administered over the Web during the period 11 February through 2 March 2005. Respondents were contacted by individual email messages using email addresses that they had voluntarily provided at the time of their excursion. Most bear viewers (69%) in the sample come from lower-48 U.S. states. About 20% come from foreign countries. Only about 10% come from Alaska. About one-third of the respondents stated that bear viewing was the primary purpose of their trip to Alaska. People in the sample spent an average of about 17 days on their trips – far longer than the overall Alaska summer tourism average of about 10 days.
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Sustainable Economic Development for the Prince William Sound Region
Ginny Fay, Steve Colt, and Tobias Schwoerer
The Prince William Sound area possesses an array of the attractions that draw people to visit and live in Alaska: dramatic peaks and glaciers, an intricate coastline, old growth rainforest, alpine meadows, abundant wildlife, and distinct small towns and villages. It offers a valuable combination of accessibility and wilderness solitude. The area has many of the resources and products needed to position itself as a premier destination for the adventure, cultural, educational and ecotourism market segments. A key challenge for the region is to capture these economic opportunities while maintaining control over residents’ economic future and quality of life. The goals of this project are to: • Identify opportunities and challenges to diversify and grow the Prince William Sound economy while improving the quality of life for Prince William Sound residents and maintaining the exceptional natural environment. • Help foster and strengthen partnerships for economic development. • Consider new pathways to a prosperous economic future.
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Program Evaluation: Rose Urban Rural Teacher Training 2005 (Amended)
Rosyland Frazier and Williamson McDiarmid
Based on successful experiences in the Student Exchange component of the Rose Urban- Rural Exchange, the Alaska Humanities Forum developed Teacher Training to give urban teachers hands-on experience in rural Alaska Native culture. In 2002, the forum began this summer program for teachers, sending middle- and high-school teachers to Alaska Native culture and spirit camps in rural Alaska. At these camps, urban teachers are exposed to Native arts and crafts, history, subsistence lifestyle, language, and dance. Also at these camps, Alaska Native elders pass on their stories and culture to young people. Teachers go through an orientation before they leave for camp, and after their return they complete lesson plans based on their experiences. These individual lesson plans are compiled in a notebook of lesson plans that are available to all Alaska teachers to help them bridge the urban-rural divide. Also, because a semester of Alaska Studies is now a statewide graduation requirement, these lesson plans constitute a valuable resource for Alaska studies courses.
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Memorandum on the Economic and Demographic Impacts of a Knik Arm Bridge
Scott Goldsmith
The base case projection for the economy and population of the state is very similar to the base case projection prepared in 2004 for the Alaska Railbelt electric utilities and published in the document entitled Economic Projections for Alaska and the Southern Railbelt 2004-2030 (ISER, November 2004). A comparison of the major state economic and demographic variables for the two projections is presented in a later chapter of this memorandum. The major difference between the two projections at the state level results from differences in the scenario assumptions driving the projections, as well as some revisions and recalibrations of the model used in the projections. The scenario assumptions driving the base case, as well as the high and low case projections for this study, are presented in a later chapter....Major differences between the current base case and the 2004 base case result from inclusion of ANWR production and gas line construction in the current base case. Prepared for Northern Economics as input to Knik Arm Bridge and Toll Authority [KABATA] Environmental Impact Statement "
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The DOD Economic Analysis of Eielson Realignment Is Seriously Flawed
Scott Goldsmith
The DOD analysis of the economic impact on Fairbanks of the realignment of Eielson air base concludes that the net loss of 2,940 military and civilian jobs at Eielson would result in the loss of 1,770 additional jobs in the Fairbanks MSA (Fairbanks North Star Borough). This would represent a loss of 8.6% of all jobs, based on an estimate of 54,469 total jobs in the Borough. The loss of 8.6% of all jobs represents the 4th largest hit as a percentage among all 234 regions that would by effected by implementation of the BRAC recommendations. Netting out those bases recommended for closure, and thus available for redevelopment, the negative economic impact on Fairbanks would be exceeded in only one other region (Clovis, New Mexico).
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The Kenai National Wildlife Refuge: Economic Importance, 2004
Scott Goldsmith, Alexandra Hill, and Darcy Dugan
The Kenai National Wildlife Refuge contributes to the borough economy primarily through the tourism and seafood industries. The refuge’s lakes, mountains and forests are home to abundant animals, birds, and fish. They provide sport fishing and hunting opportunities as well as a variety of non-consumptive activities such as hiking, rafting and bird watching. The refuge also contains breeding and rearing habitat for substantial salmon populations that support sport fishing both on and off the refuge as well as commercial fishing in Cook Inlet. Three changes in the significance and impact of the refuge emerge in comparing this report with ISER’s previous estimates published in The Kenai National Wildlife Refuge: Economic Importance (May, 2000). The most striking is the continued decline in the value of Cook Inlet commercial salmon fisheries. Harvest values since 2000 are among the lowest in the last 30 years. Increased competition keeps prices low enough that even years with good returns have low total harvest values. Employment generated by commercial fishing attributable to the refuge has declined by 40 percent and income by almost 70 percent.
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2005 Alaska Construction Spending Forecast
Scott Goldsmith and Mary Killorin
Construction spending is one of the important contributors to overall economic activity in Alaska. It supports firms not only in the construction industry itself, but also construction activity “hidden” in other sectors of the economy such as oil and gas and mining. This is the second year we have prepared a forecast of construction spending, and our categories of spending are not exactly comparable to those last year. Consequently it is not possible to directly compare the forecasts by category between 2004 and 2005. Although we have not conducted a formal year-end review of construction spending in 2004, in the process of collecting information for 2005 we have determined that our projection for 2004 was robust.
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