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2007 Alaska's Construction Spending Forecast
Mary Killorin and Scott Goldsmith
Uncertainty in the forecast for 2007 comes from several sources. The decline in the crude oil price in recent months may cause some firms working in the oil patch to re-evaluate their capital budget decisions and slow their rate of investment in exploration and development. All sectors of the industry are continuing to experience rapid increases in construction material costs that will undoubtedly cause some projects to be canceled or postponed, as has been the case in the last several years.
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Globalization and Aquaculture: Challenges, Opportunities, and Questions for the Smoked Seafood Industry
Gunnar Knapp
The world economy is experiencing far-reaching changes that are collectively referred to as “globalization.” Among the causes and consequences of globalization are increasingly reliance on markets; reductions in trade barriers and expansion of trade; world economic integration in markets for resources, goods, services, labor, and capital; movement of production to low-cost producers; consolidation and integration resulting in larger and more powerful firms operating in many countries; technological revolutions in communications and transportation; growing consumer incomes in developed and developing countries; and increasing consumer expectations for lower prices, convenience, variety, and quality. The world seafood industry is changing rapidly. This paper describes some of the most important changes that are happening and suggests questions people in the smoked seafood industry should be thinking about in order to respond to these changes.
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The Great Salmon Run: Competition Between Wild and Farmed Salmon
Gunnar Knapp, Cathy Roheim, and James Anderson
This report examines economic and policy issues related to wild and farmed salmon in North America. These issues have received a great deal of attention in recent years, reflecting the environmental, economic and cultural importance of salmon to Americans—and the fact that salmon issues span many important policy debates ranging from environmental protection to trade policy. The salmon industry has experienced dramatic change over the past two decades. Two major trends gave rise to many of the issues discussed in this report. The first trend is the rapid and sustained growth in world farmed salmon and salmon trout production, from two percent of world supply in 1980 to 65 percent of world supply in 2004. The growth of farmed salmon and the decline in the value of wild salmon has given rise to two broad sets of questions: • How has salmon farming affected wild salmon resources and the wild salmon industry? • What should be done to protect wild salmon resources and strengthen the wild salmon industry?"
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Copper River Salmon Habitat Management Study
Marie Lowe
In 2006, Ecotrust commissioned the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at the University of Alaska Anchorage to conduct a study on land managers’ perceptions of salmon habitat management in the Copper River Watershed (CRW). ISER interviewed 20 managers from 10 organizations representing Federal agencies (BLM, USACE, USFS, USFWS), State of Alaska agencies (ADFG, DEC, DNR) and Alaska Native Corporations (AHTNA, EYAK). The study was conducted to examine managers’ perceptions about the current status of watershed management with regard to health of salmon populations. By interviewing resource managers, the research was conducted to determine threats to salmon habitat and to expose the most vulnerable geographic areas of the watershed, examine potential goals for long-term management, isolate the identities of key individuals who can influence the success of long-term management and enforcement of regulations, ascertain possible changes that could be made to current management plans, and identify the most effective political tools for effective management of salmon habitat within the watershed. The research was conducted to answer the following questions: 1. What are the economic, political and social impediments to the immediate and long-term effective management of wild salmon and their habitat from the perspective of fishery managers? 2. How can these impediments be mitigated in the future?
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Economic and Social Impacts of BSAI Crab Rationalization on the Communities of King Cove, Akutan, and False Pass
Marie Lowe and Gunnar Knapp
This report examines economic and social impacts of the first two years of crab rationalization on the Aleutians East Borough communities of King Cove, Akutan and False Pass. The study was conducted by the University of Alaska Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) for the Aleutians East Borough (AEB) and the City of King Cove. Crab rationalization resulted in dramatic consolidation in Bering Sea crab fisheries. During the first two years of rationalization, consolidation reduced the number of boats participating in the Bristol Bay Red King Crab fishery and the Bering Sea Snow Crab fishery by about two-thirds. This consolidation in the fleet, and the corresponding reduction in crab fishing jobs and crab boat spending, was a major immediate short-term factor driving economic impacts on the three study communities to date. Longer-term concerns of community residents extend beyond these immediate economic impacts to many other issues. The report is based on a literature review, interviews conducted during visits to each study community, analysis of federal and state and local fisheries data and community data, and a household survey conducted by the City of King Cove. The primary focus of the study is on King Cove, because it is a larger community which has experienced greater effects of crab rationalization.
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Rose Urban-Rural Exchange Program Evaluation 2006 Teacher Training Part II
G. Williamson McDiarmid and Rosyland Frazier
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Rose Urban-Rural Exchange Program Evaluation 2007 Sister School
G. Williamson McDiarmid, Rosyland Frazier, and Darla Siver
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Alaska Election Security Report - Phase 1
Kenrick Mock, Stephanie Martin, LuAnn Picard, Mark Ayers, and David Hoffman
Alaska voters depend on a chain of people and equipment to keep their votes secure—to count and report the votes accurately and protect the secrecy of individual ballots. How secure is Alaska’s voting system? That’s what Alaska’s lieutenant governor and the Division of Elections asked the University of Alaska Anchorage to find out. We’re reporting here on the first phase of what will be a multi-phase study of Alaska’s election security. The last phase will be completed before the 2008 presidential election. What we found so far is in many ways reassuring: Alaska’s system has a number of features that address security. Paper ballots remain the official ballots, and they back up electronic counts. Vote counts are cross-checked in different locations. Alaska also has a centralized system for federal and state elections. In this first phase of the project, we did several tasks: • Examined Alaska’s voting system, including equipment and procedures. • Did detailed reviews of election-security studies for California and Florida and interviewed researchers who conducted those studies. • Identified areas of Alaska’s system that need more evaluation.
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Estimating Future Costs for Alaska Public Infrastructure At Risk from Climate Change
Ben Saylor, Peter Larsen, Scott Goldsmith, Meghan Wilson, Orson Smith, Ken Strzepek, and Paul Chinowsky
Scientists expect Alaska’s climate to get warmer in the coming years— and the changing climate could make it roughly 10% to 20% more expensive to build and maintain public infrastructure in Alaska between now and 2030 and 10% more expensive between now and 2080. These are the first estimates of how much climate change might add to future costs for public infrastructure in Alaska, and they are preliminary. “Public infrastructure” means all the federal, state, and local infrastructure that keeps Alaska functioning: roads, bridges, airports, harbors, schools, military bases, post offices, fire stations, sanitation systems, the power grid, and more. Privately owned infrastructure will also be affected by climate change, but this analysis looks only at public infrastructure.
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Testing a Methodology for Estimating the Economic Significance of Saltwater Charter Fishing in Southeast Alaska
Meghan Wilson, Ginny Fay, Darcy Dugan, Ian Fay-Hiltner, and Steve Colt
In May 2004, the Alaska legislature established new licensing requirement for sport fishing guide business owners and sport fishing guides on a statewide basis. As part of this new registration process, a registered guide vessel must display an ADF&G guide decal on both sides of the vessel along with a current year tag provided when the logbook is issued. The vessel registration portion of the logbook distribution does not collect all the information that CFEC previously collect; the primary mission at Sport Fish Division is monitor fishing pressure on fish stocks by tracking the number of vessels used in the guide industry including the number of vessels used by an individual business. Since a logbook is issued to a unique business, it is possible to determine how many vessels are being used by that given business. The new licensing requirements initiated in 2005, require that a business maintain current Occupational License and Liability Insurance. A guide is also required to have a current sport fish license, first aid certificate and a Coast Guard license if they plan to operate a motorized vessel with clients on board.The purposes of this study are 1) to estimate the economic significance of saltwater charter sport fishing in Southeast Alaska and 2) to test a new methodology for developing these estimates. In addition, this study lays the groundwork for additional spatial analysis relating fishing activity to spawning habitat and to local economies. By making these spatial associations we hope to generate a clearer picture of the economic values generated by riparian ecosystems and captured by anglers and captains from specific communities. "
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Understanding Barriers to Health Insurance of Uninsured and Sporadically Insured Alaskans
Meghan Wilson, Virgene Hanna, and Rosyland Frazier
It’s no surprise that a lot of the Alaskans who don’t have health insurance say they just can’t afford it. That’s what individual Alaskans and representatives of small businesses told us, when we held focus groups in Anchorage, the Mat-Su and Kenai Peninsula boroughs, and Kodiak. But the focus groups, held from late 2006 through early 2007, did much more than just confirm what many Alaskans— and millions of other Americans—say about the costs of health insurance. We held the focus groups under contract with the Alaska Department of Health and Social Services, as part of the state’s effort to learn more about the barriers a substantial number of Alaskans face in getting health-care coverage. There were 16 focus groups, attended by 89 individual Alaskans, 30 representatives of small businesses, and 5 Alaskans who sell health insurance.
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The Extent of Homelessness in the Kenai Peninsula Borough
Meghan Wilson and Marie Lowe
In 2007, Love INC asked the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) to conduct a study investigating the characteristics of the homeless population within the boundaries of the Kenai Peninsula Borough. Love INC is currently in the pre-development phase of creating a transitional housing facility on the Kenai Peninsula. ISER conducted phone interviews with relevant agencies serving the Kenai’s homeless population. These interviews yielded demographic information on the homeless population and provided both the current housing status of Kenai homeless and reasons for homelessness today. Men, women, and youth utilize homeless services on the Kenai Peninsula; they are between the ages of 25 – 40 years old and the majority are ethnically Euro American or Alaska Native. The Alaska Housing and Finance Authority 2006 summer survey indicates 28 individuals were identified as homeless in the Homer area and 58 individuals were reported in the Kenai area while the other main communities of Seward and Soldotna were not included. The overall homeless population is difficult to enumerate because of their transience and because oftentimes a state of homelessness is variable and/or temporary. Given these constraints we estimate there are approximately between 400 and 500 homeless individuals on the Kenai Peninsula per year; the majority in the community of Kenai.
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Alaska's New Petroleum Production Tax
Matthew Berman
The Alaska legislature enacted a major change to the state system of taxation for oil and gas on August 6, 2006, retroactive to April 1, 2006. The new tax, passed after several false starts in the third special session of the year, would replace a tax on gross wellhead production value of oil and a tax on gross wellhead value of gas with a single tax on net income earned at the wellhead. This article attempts to put the decision in context. It discusses some of the major issues related to oil taxes, summarizes the historical pattern of state petroleum revenues, and considers the consequences of the major features of the current tax proposals. We examine the new PPT in the context of these three big questions, comparing patterns and trends over time in Alaska and relative to other states and nations. There is no perfect tax mechanism, and each question involves a principal tradeoff.
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Changing Alaska's Oil and Gas Production Taxes: Issues and Consequences
Matthew Berman
The Alaska legislature is currently considering a major change to the state system of taxation for oil and gas. The proposed new tax system would replace a tax on gross wellhead production value of oil and a tax on gross wellhead value of gas with a single tax on net income earned at the wellhead. This article attempts to put the decision in context. It discusses some of the major issues related to oil taxes, summarizes the historical pattern of state petroleum revenues, and considers the consequences of the major features of the current tax proposals.
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Telehealth Business Models: An Assessment Tool for Telehealth Business Opportunities in Remote Rural Communities
Matthew Berman, Mark Foster, and Rosyland Frazier
The purpose of this report is to provide an overview of when the potentially offsetting considerations favor telehealth investments. To that end, we provide users with a financial template to assist them with the business model question of “how is value delivered to my customer and at what cost?” – assuming that the customer(s) may include a primary care provider, a specialist, an insurance company, a health care system, the entity paying for travel, and patients. The financial template allows users to enter their site specific estimates regarding changes in referral patterns with and without telehealth and the revenues and costs that result from the changes in referral patterns. In addition, we provide a spreadsheet to enable the user to estimate the potential value of patients’ time saved by avoiding travel and the value to patients of reduced wait time in the queue for specialty care. In addition, we provide a number of illustrative business cases primarily designed to show the potential complexity of the inter-relationship of parameters and assist users with understanding how they might use the template to build business cases for their particular circumstance. We also provide several examples of sensitivity analysis to assist users with understanding how they might use the template to develop “break-even” analyses and identify when the changes in referral patterns and case mix might trigger a need for increased staff or result in longer queues.
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Agent-Based Modeling of the Bristol Bay Drift Gillnet Salmon Fishery
Brandon Chasco, Gunnar Knapp, and Ray Hilborn
Alaska’s Bristol Bay sockeye salmon fishery is the world’s largest fishery for this species. Between 1980 and 2005, annual catches averaged 24 million fish, with an annual average ex-vessel value of US$165 million. Historically, the Bristol Bay sockeye salmon fishery has accounted for 20-40% of the total value of Alaska salmon fisheries. Similar to most other Alaska salmon fisheries, Bristol Bay fisheries are managed to achieve escapement goals for several major river systems flowing into Bristol Bay. Fish- ing is allowed during period “openings” over the season to catch returning salmon surplus to escapement goals. In general, the current management system is reasonably successful from a biological point of view, in the sense that managers are usually able to control fishing effort to achieve escapement goals. Our initial fishery data analysis supports key model relationships that we have hypothesized have important implications for how prices, runs, and management may affect the Bristol Bay fishery. For example, the higher the ex-vessel value of the fishery, the more rapid the rate of permit outmigration from the Bristol Bay region.
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Summary of 2006 Southcentral Energy Forum
Pamela Cravez, Scott Goldsmith, and Peter Larsen
Nearly 70% of Alaskans rely on relatively inexpensive natural gas from Cook Inlet. That gas heats homes and businesses, generates electricity, and fuels industrial processes. But growing demand has depleted 80% of the known Cook Inlet gas reserves. Many Alaskans are concerned about where Southcentral Alaska will get affordable energy in the future. The information presented here is not a product of ISER research. It is a summary of statements, opinions, and projections of those attending the forum.
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National Guard Subsistence Survey Reports (2006 and 2007)
Patricia DeRoche, Scott Goldsmith, Mary Killorin, Caroline Schultz, Uyuriukaraq Lily Ulran, and Meghan Wilson
These reports provides data collected regarding subsistence activities in communities of Alaska's north and south west regions (2006) and in the southeast region including Kenai and Kodiak (2007) . Data is tabulated by community and then by species. No interpretation is provided. Information intended to determine the best times for the National Guard to conduct training exercises in these areas.
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Alaska Civic Learning Assesment Project: Final Report and Policy Brief
Letitia Fickel, Diane Hirshberg, and Alexandra Hill
In late 2002, the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) and Carnegie Corporation of New York, in consultation with the Corporation for National and Community Service, convened a series of meetings involving some of the nation’s most distinguished and respected scholars and practitioners in the area of civic education. The purpose was to determine, based on solid data and evidence, the components of effective and feasible civic learning programs. Representing a diversity of political views, a variety of disciplines, and various approaches, these individuals shared a common vision of a richer, more comprehensive approach to civic education in the United States, notwithstanding some disagreement about aspects of how civic education should be conducted. Their final report, entitled The Civic Mission of Schools, is a compelling statement of the national landscape regarding civic learning and the critical role that schools play in fostering citizenship education. The goal of the ACLA Project is to better understand the current state of K-12 civic learning in Alaska and to assess the civic knowledge and experiences of Alaska's youth. The project has focused on both civics topics common across the United States and those unique to Alaska, with the goal of informing efforts to improve civic education in the state. After a brief overview of national research on civic education, this report presents findings from the ACLA Project research on the current status of civic education in Alaska, the civic knowledge of youth and adults, and the attitudes about civic education held by educators, youth and elders.
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Understanding Alaska: People, Economy, and Resources
Mark Foster, Pamela Cravez, and Terrence Cole
Understanding Alaska is a special series of studies by the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), to examine economic development issues and help Alaskans understand how their economy works. The studies began in 2001, and here we highlight some of the work so far. The University of Alaska Foundation has provided most of the funding for Understanding Alaska which examines how Alaska’s economy works, why it’s different from those in other states, and how Alaska’s unique circumstances affect economic development. This publication divides Understanding Alaska research into three categories: People, Economy, and Fisheries. At the end of each section is a list of the full reports or presentations excerpted for this overview. In some cases, we’ve updated information specifically for this publication.
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Village Wind Diesel Hydrogen Report
Steve Gilbert and Steve Colt
The cost of energy in hub and satellite villages has long been a major contributor to the cost of living in rural Alaska. Wind energy currently displaces a portion of the diesel fuel used for power generation in 5 Alaskan villages; Kotzebue, Selawick, Tooksook Bay, Wales and Saint Paul Island. Numerous other villages are being considered as potential sites for integration of wind generation into the diesel electric system. Wind diesel electric systems are showing promise as sources of long term flat priced electricity for village power needs. Since the price of wind doesn’t change the cost of the wind generated component of electricity is not subject to fuel price volatility. As with any renewable energy the upfront capital cost is higher than diesel engines. Wind diesel alone however, does not address the broader energy needs of rural communities. Fuels such as gasoline, diesel and heating oil have to be transported to the village. This report explores the potential of using wind to produce hydrogen for transportation and heating fuels at a small, 400 person and large, 4000 person village.
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Alaska National Guard Subsistence Survey
Oliver Scott Goldsmith, Mary Killorin, Patricia DeRoche, Meghan Wilson, Uyuriukaraq Lily Ulran, and Caroline Schultz
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