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Rose Urban-Rural Exchange Program Evaluation 2006 Teacher Training Part II
G. Williamson McDiarmid and Rosyland Frazier
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Rose Urban-Rural Exchange Program Evaluation 2007 Sister School
G. Williamson McDiarmid, Rosyland Frazier, and Darla Siver
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Alaska Election Security Report - Phase 1
Kenrick Mock, Stephanie Martin, LuAnn Picard, Mark Ayers, and David Hoffman
Alaska voters depend on a chain of people and equipment to keep their votes secure—to count and report the votes accurately and protect the secrecy of individual ballots. How secure is Alaska’s voting system? That’s what Alaska’s lieutenant governor and the Division of Elections asked the University of Alaska Anchorage to find out. We’re reporting here on the first phase of what will be a multi-phase study of Alaska’s election security. The last phase will be completed before the 2008 presidential election. What we found so far is in many ways reassuring: Alaska’s system has a number of features that address security. Paper ballots remain the official ballots, and they back up electronic counts. Vote counts are cross-checked in different locations. Alaska also has a centralized system for federal and state elections. In this first phase of the project, we did several tasks: • Examined Alaska’s voting system, including equipment and procedures. • Did detailed reviews of election-security studies for California and Florida and interviewed researchers who conducted those studies. • Identified areas of Alaska’s system that need more evaluation.
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Estimating Future Costs for Alaska Public Infrastructure At Risk from Climate Change
Ben Saylor, Peter Larsen, Scott Goldsmith, Meghan Wilson, Orson Smith, Ken Strzepek, and Paul Chinowsky
Scientists expect Alaska’s climate to get warmer in the coming years— and the changing climate could make it roughly 10% to 20% more expensive to build and maintain public infrastructure in Alaska between now and 2030 and 10% more expensive between now and 2080. These are the first estimates of how much climate change might add to future costs for public infrastructure in Alaska, and they are preliminary. “Public infrastructure” means all the federal, state, and local infrastructure that keeps Alaska functioning: roads, bridges, airports, harbors, schools, military bases, post offices, fire stations, sanitation systems, the power grid, and more. Privately owned infrastructure will also be affected by climate change, but this analysis looks only at public infrastructure.
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Testing a Methodology for Estimating the Economic Significance of Saltwater Charter Fishing in Southeast Alaska
Meghan Wilson, Ginny Fay, Darcy Dugan, Ian Fay-Hiltner, and Steve Colt
In May 2004, the Alaska legislature established new licensing requirement for sport fishing guide business owners and sport fishing guides on a statewide basis. As part of this new registration process, a registered guide vessel must display an ADF&G guide decal on both sides of the vessel along with a current year tag provided when the logbook is issued. The vessel registration portion of the logbook distribution does not collect all the information that CFEC previously collect; the primary mission at Sport Fish Division is monitor fishing pressure on fish stocks by tracking the number of vessels used in the guide industry including the number of vessels used by an individual business. Since a logbook is issued to a unique business, it is possible to determine how many vessels are being used by that given business. The new licensing requirements initiated in 2005, require that a business maintain current Occupational License and Liability Insurance. A guide is also required to have a current sport fish license, first aid certificate and a Coast Guard license if they plan to operate a motorized vessel with clients on board.The purposes of this study are 1) to estimate the economic significance of saltwater charter sport fishing in Southeast Alaska and 2) to test a new methodology for developing these estimates. In addition, this study lays the groundwork for additional spatial analysis relating fishing activity to spawning habitat and to local economies. By making these spatial associations we hope to generate a clearer picture of the economic values generated by riparian ecosystems and captured by anglers and captains from specific communities. "
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Understanding Barriers to Health Insurance of Uninsured and Sporadically Insured Alaskans
Meghan Wilson, Virgene Hanna, and Rosyland Frazier
It’s no surprise that a lot of the Alaskans who don’t have health insurance say they just can’t afford it. That’s what individual Alaskans and representatives of small businesses told us, when we held focus groups in Anchorage, the Mat-Su and Kenai Peninsula boroughs, and Kodiak. But the focus groups, held from late 2006 through early 2007, did much more than just confirm what many Alaskans— and millions of other Americans—say about the costs of health insurance. We held the focus groups under contract with the Alaska Department of Health and Social Services, as part of the state’s effort to learn more about the barriers a substantial number of Alaskans face in getting health-care coverage. There were 16 focus groups, attended by 89 individual Alaskans, 30 representatives of small businesses, and 5 Alaskans who sell health insurance.
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The Extent of Homelessness in the Kenai Peninsula Borough
Meghan Wilson and Marie Lowe
In 2007, Love INC asked the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) to conduct a study investigating the characteristics of the homeless population within the boundaries of the Kenai Peninsula Borough. Love INC is currently in the pre-development phase of creating a transitional housing facility on the Kenai Peninsula. ISER conducted phone interviews with relevant agencies serving the Kenai’s homeless population. These interviews yielded demographic information on the homeless population and provided both the current housing status of Kenai homeless and reasons for homelessness today. Men, women, and youth utilize homeless services on the Kenai Peninsula; they are between the ages of 25 – 40 years old and the majority are ethnically Euro American or Alaska Native. The Alaska Housing and Finance Authority 2006 summer survey indicates 28 individuals were identified as homeless in the Homer area and 58 individuals were reported in the Kenai area while the other main communities of Seward and Soldotna were not included. The overall homeless population is difficult to enumerate because of their transience and because oftentimes a state of homelessness is variable and/or temporary. Given these constraints we estimate there are approximately between 400 and 500 homeless individuals on the Kenai Peninsula per year; the majority in the community of Kenai.
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Alaska's New Petroleum Production Tax
Matthew Berman
The Alaska legislature enacted a major change to the state system of taxation for oil and gas on August 6, 2006, retroactive to April 1, 2006. The new tax, passed after several false starts in the third special session of the year, would replace a tax on gross wellhead production value of oil and a tax on gross wellhead value of gas with a single tax on net income earned at the wellhead. This article attempts to put the decision in context. It discusses some of the major issues related to oil taxes, summarizes the historical pattern of state petroleum revenues, and considers the consequences of the major features of the current tax proposals. We examine the new PPT in the context of these three big questions, comparing patterns and trends over time in Alaska and relative to other states and nations. There is no perfect tax mechanism, and each question involves a principal tradeoff.
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Changing Alaska's Oil and Gas Production Taxes: Issues and Consequences
Matthew Berman
The Alaska legislature is currently considering a major change to the state system of taxation for oil and gas. The proposed new tax system would replace a tax on gross wellhead production value of oil and a tax on gross wellhead value of gas with a single tax on net income earned at the wellhead. This article attempts to put the decision in context. It discusses some of the major issues related to oil taxes, summarizes the historical pattern of state petroleum revenues, and considers the consequences of the major features of the current tax proposals.
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Telehealth Business Models: An Assessment Tool for Telehealth Business Opportunities in Remote Rural Communities
Matthew Berman, Mark Foster, and Rosyland Frazier
The purpose of this report is to provide an overview of when the potentially offsetting considerations favor telehealth investments. To that end, we provide users with a financial template to assist them with the business model question of “how is value delivered to my customer and at what cost?” – assuming that the customer(s) may include a primary care provider, a specialist, an insurance company, a health care system, the entity paying for travel, and patients. The financial template allows users to enter their site specific estimates regarding changes in referral patterns with and without telehealth and the revenues and costs that result from the changes in referral patterns. In addition, we provide a spreadsheet to enable the user to estimate the potential value of patients’ time saved by avoiding travel and the value to patients of reduced wait time in the queue for specialty care. In addition, we provide a number of illustrative business cases primarily designed to show the potential complexity of the inter-relationship of parameters and assist users with understanding how they might use the template to build business cases for their particular circumstance. We also provide several examples of sensitivity analysis to assist users with understanding how they might use the template to develop “break-even” analyses and identify when the changes in referral patterns and case mix might trigger a need for increased staff or result in longer queues.
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Agent-Based Modeling of the Bristol Bay Drift Gillnet Salmon Fishery
Brandon Chasco, Gunnar Knapp, and Ray Hilborn
Alaska’s Bristol Bay sockeye salmon fishery is the world’s largest fishery for this species. Between 1980 and 2005, annual catches averaged 24 million fish, with an annual average ex-vessel value of US$165 million. Historically, the Bristol Bay sockeye salmon fishery has accounted for 20-40% of the total value of Alaska salmon fisheries. Similar to most other Alaska salmon fisheries, Bristol Bay fisheries are managed to achieve escapement goals for several major river systems flowing into Bristol Bay. Fish- ing is allowed during period “openings” over the season to catch returning salmon surplus to escapement goals. In general, the current management system is reasonably successful from a biological point of view, in the sense that managers are usually able to control fishing effort to achieve escapement goals. Our initial fishery data analysis supports key model relationships that we have hypothesized have important implications for how prices, runs, and management may affect the Bristol Bay fishery. For example, the higher the ex-vessel value of the fishery, the more rapid the rate of permit outmigration from the Bristol Bay region.
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Summary of 2006 Southcentral Energy Forum
Pamela Cravez, Scott Goldsmith, and Peter Larsen
Nearly 70% of Alaskans rely on relatively inexpensive natural gas from Cook Inlet. That gas heats homes and businesses, generates electricity, and fuels industrial processes. But growing demand has depleted 80% of the known Cook Inlet gas reserves. Many Alaskans are concerned about where Southcentral Alaska will get affordable energy in the future. The information presented here is not a product of ISER research. It is a summary of statements, opinions, and projections of those attending the forum.
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National Guard Subsistence Survey Reports (2006 and 2007)
Patricia DeRoche, Scott Goldsmith, Mary Killorin, Caroline Schultz, Uyuriukaraq Lily Ulran, and Meghan Wilson
These reports provides data collected regarding subsistence activities in communities of Alaska's north and south west regions (2006) and in the southeast region including Kenai and Kodiak (2007) . Data is tabulated by community and then by species. No interpretation is provided. Information intended to determine the best times for the National Guard to conduct training exercises in these areas.
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Alaska Civic Learning Assesment Project: Final Report and Policy Brief
Letitia Fickel, Diane Hirshberg, and Alexandra Hill
In late 2002, the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) and Carnegie Corporation of New York, in consultation with the Corporation for National and Community Service, convened a series of meetings involving some of the nation’s most distinguished and respected scholars and practitioners in the area of civic education. The purpose was to determine, based on solid data and evidence, the components of effective and feasible civic learning programs. Representing a diversity of political views, a variety of disciplines, and various approaches, these individuals shared a common vision of a richer, more comprehensive approach to civic education in the United States, notwithstanding some disagreement about aspects of how civic education should be conducted. Their final report, entitled The Civic Mission of Schools, is a compelling statement of the national landscape regarding civic learning and the critical role that schools play in fostering citizenship education. The goal of the ACLA Project is to better understand the current state of K-12 civic learning in Alaska and to assess the civic knowledge and experiences of Alaska's youth. The project has focused on both civics topics common across the United States and those unique to Alaska, with the goal of informing efforts to improve civic education in the state. After a brief overview of national research on civic education, this report presents findings from the ACLA Project research on the current status of civic education in Alaska, the civic knowledge of youth and adults, and the attitudes about civic education held by educators, youth and elders.
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Understanding Alaska: People, Economy, and Resources
Mark Foster, Pamela Cravez, and Terrence Cole
Understanding Alaska is a special series of studies by the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), to examine economic development issues and help Alaskans understand how their economy works. The studies began in 2001, and here we highlight some of the work so far. The University of Alaska Foundation has provided most of the funding for Understanding Alaska which examines how Alaska’s economy works, why it’s different from those in other states, and how Alaska’s unique circumstances affect economic development. This publication divides Understanding Alaska research into three categories: People, Economy, and Fisheries. At the end of each section is a list of the full reports or presentations excerpted for this overview. In some cases, we’ve updated information specifically for this publication.
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Village Wind Diesel Hydrogen Report
Steve Gilbert and Steve Colt
The cost of energy in hub and satellite villages has long been a major contributor to the cost of living in rural Alaska. Wind energy currently displaces a portion of the diesel fuel used for power generation in 5 Alaskan villages; Kotzebue, Selawick, Tooksook Bay, Wales and Saint Paul Island. Numerous other villages are being considered as potential sites for integration of wind generation into the diesel electric system. Wind diesel electric systems are showing promise as sources of long term flat priced electricity for village power needs. Since the price of wind doesn’t change the cost of the wind generated component of electricity is not subject to fuel price volatility. As with any renewable energy the upfront capital cost is higher than diesel engines. Wind diesel alone however, does not address the broader energy needs of rural communities. Fuels such as gasoline, diesel and heating oil have to be transported to the village. This report explores the potential of using wind to produce hydrogen for transportation and heating fuels at a small, 400 person and large, 4000 person village.
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Alaska National Guard Subsistence Survey
Oliver Scott Goldsmith, Mary Killorin, Patricia DeRoche, Meghan Wilson, Uyuriukaraq Lily Ulran, and Caroline Schultz
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The Economic Importance of Alaska Labor Union Pension Funds
Scott Goldsmith
Labor union retirees could choose to live anywhere and those that remain in Alaska and collect their pensions in Alaska add to total economic activity. Pension distributions are one important source of purchasing power that flows into Alaska supporting households and generating income and jobs in a wide range of economic sectors. In this way union pension payments are similar to the wages paid in our natural resource export industries like petroleum, mining, and fishing and to the distributions made through the Permanent Fund Dividend program. All of these bring new money from outside the state into Alaska where it becomes income for Alaskan households. When these households then spend this income, sales, jobs, and payrolls are generated in trade, services, construction, and other sectors of the local economy. As these dollars re-circulate through the local economy, additional sales, jobs, and payroll are generated through the process known as the multiplier. The size of the annual infusion of purchasing power into the economy from labor union pension funds, although modest in comparison to some other sources, is not insignificant. For example, in 2004 the union pension fund infusion of $147 million was about one-quarter as large as the distribution from the Alaska Permanent Fund. It was about 50 percent larger than the payroll of the mining industry.
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The Foraker Group Report on the Alaska Nonprofit Economy
Scott Goldsmith
The nonprofit sector comprises those nongovernmental organizations, commonly known as 501c corporations, that are exempt from the federal corporate income tax. As such, they are a large and very diverse group, as reflected in the different categories identified in the federal tax code. Although comprising a broad array of activities, the entities in the nonprofit sector can be characterized by the following six characteristics: First, they serve some public purpose and contribute to the public good. Second, they involve some voluntary participation, typically in the form of a board of directors, but often involving voluntary labor as well. Third, they are self-governing—meaning that they have internal controls that are not governed by outsiders. Fourth, they are not dedicated to generating profits for their owners through their activities, except that excess revenues may be reinvested in the mission of the organization. Fifth, they are institutionally separate from the government. And finally, they are organizations which typically secure legal standing as corporations chartered under state laws. This allows them to enter into contracts and carry on other functions. However, it is not necessary for a nonprofit to be chartered in this way. (The informal nature of many nonprofits makes it difficult to track and measure the total importance of the sector.) This report is the first attempt to provide a comprehensive description of the nonprofit sector in Alaska. It is based upon a diverse collection of state and national data sources pieced together to create a comprehensive picture of the scope and importance of nonprofits.
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The Gas Reserves Tax Ballot Initiative: Risky State Policy
Scott Goldsmith
Alaska voters will decide whether the state government should start taxing the natural gas reserves in the two largest North Slope gas fields. The idea behind the proposal is to jump-start construction of a gas pipeline. The North Slope has one of the largest accumulations of natural gas in the U.S., and Alaskans have been waiting a long time for a pipeline to carry that gas to market. Recent higher gas prices have made the project more attractive. Several oil companies hold leases on the gas. They’ve taken steps toward a pipeline—like negotiating fiscal terms with the state—but they haven’t committed to building one. Supporters of the reserves tax think they’re delaying the project (for various possible reasons) and should be pushed. The ballot proposal calls for the oil companies to pay a reserves tax—a tax on gas in the ground—until a pipeline is completed and North Slope gas is up for sale. It offers incentives for them to speed up the project: the sooner the pipeline is finished, the less they pay; and later they would recover some of what they did pay, in credits on gas production taxes. This report is summarized in the fifth Fiscal Policy Note which is included with this document record.
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$1.5 Billion and Growing: Economic Contribution of Older Alaskans
Scott Goldsmith and Jane Angvik
Nearly $1.5 billion a year flows into Alaska from a source that doesn’t depend on oil or fish or gold, isn’t influenced by world markets, and isn’t seasonal. That cash flow roughly equals what fishermen were paid in 2005 for their Alaska seafood harvests, or the value of zinc, gold, and other metals mined in Alaska in 2004. It’s close to what tourists spend here every summer. What’s the source? Retired Alaskans. The 52,000 retirees age 60 or older brought an estimated $1.46 billion into the state in 2004. About 75% is from Social Security and pensions. Most of the rest is spending by governments and private insurers for health-care costs of retired Alaskans. ISER estimates that spending by retirees supports about 11,700 jobs—or nearly 4% of Alaska’s wage and salary jobs. This summary reports ISER’s findings about the economic contributions of older Alaskans, describes who they are, and estimates how their numbers are likely to grow.
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Alaska's $5 Billion Health Care Bill - Who's Paying?
Scott Goldsmith and Mark Foster
Spending for health care in Alaska topped $5 billion in 2005. Just how big is $5 billion? It is, for perspective, one-third the value of North Slope oil exports in 2005—a year of high oil prices. It’s nearly one-sixth the value of everything Alaska’s economy produced last year. In 1991, health-care spending in Alaska was about $1.6 billion. Even after we take population growth into account, spending for health care increased 176% per Alaskan in 15 years. These soaring costs are taking a growing share of family and government budgets, increasing labor costs, and putting businesses at a competitive disadvantage.
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The Case for Strengthening Education in Alaska
Alexandra Hill, Lee Gorsuch, and Pamela Cravez
Alaska’s public education system has been transformed since Alaska became a state. Opportunities for education have been expanded in many ways and many places. But at every level, from pre-school on up, the education systems in Alaska and the U.S. have serious troubles. Many American children don’t have access to early education; can’t do math and science as well as those in other countries; can’t pass basic reading, writing, and math tests; and don’t finish high school. Boys are less likely than girls to go on to college. And in Alaska, there are fewer early-education programs than nationwide. Elementary and high-school students— especially Alaska Natives and those from low-income families—are falling below U.S. averages. Since statehood, Alaska’s education system has grown and improved enormously. But the remaining challenges are also very big. Alaska has the resources to deal with those challenges, and some efforts are in fact already underway. The question now for all Alaskans—not only educators and parents—is this: how do we come together to create what our state and our children need?
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