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Sea Train: Connecting Families with Unique Educational Resources 2007 Program Evaluation

Meghan Wilson, Diane Hirshberg, and Rosyland Frazier
Components of Delivered Fuel Prices in Alaska

Meghan Wilson, Ben Saylor, Nick Szymoniak, Steve Colt, and Ginny Fay

This is a systematic analysis of components of delivered fuel prices in Alaska. Data for the analysis include limited publicly available Alaska fuel prices (fall 2007 prices), as well as information the authors gathered from extensive interviews with fuel retailers and transporters, communities, and agencies. We identify the individual components of delivered fuel costs—including world price of crude oil, refining costs, transportation costs, storage and distribution costs, taxes and financing costs—and investigate how these factors influence the final retail prices of home heating fuel and gasoline. Transportation, storage, and distribution costs appear to be the most variable factors driving the large retail fuel price differentials among Alaska communities. Therefore, we investigate how factors such as seasonal icing, the number of fuel transfers enroute to specific communities, local storage and delivery infrastructure, marine and river characteristics, and distance from refineries or fuel hubs influence fuel prices. We did an in-depth analysis of how those factors influence prices in ten case study communities around the state—Allakaket/Alatna, Angoon, Bethel, Chitina, False Pass, Fort Yukon, Lime Village, Mountain Village, Unalakleet, and Yakutat. Together, the quantitative data and information on Alaska fuel logistics provide a comprehensive analysis of Alaska’s fuel prices.
Dollars of Difference: What Affects Fuel Prices Around Alaska?

Meghan Wilson, Ben Saylor, Nick Szymoniak, Steve Colt, and Ginny Fay

The spike in oil prices has hit rural Alaskans especially hard, because they rely mostly on fuel oil for heating. But some rural residents are paying much more than others—at times 100% more. The Alaska Energy Authority asked ISER to analyze what determines the prices rural households pay for fuel oil and gasoline. The agency hopes this research can help identify possible ways of holding down fuel prices in the future. In this summary we report only fuel oil prices, but the full report (see back page) also includes gasoline prices. We studied 10 communities that reflect, as much as possible, the forces driving fuel prices. We collected information in November 2007, and fuel prices have gone up a lot since then. Crude oil sold for $120 a barrel in mid-May, up from about $80 in fall 2007.
Southwest Alaska Network Long-Term Visitor Use Monitoring Protocol Development (Final Report)

Steve Colt and Ginny Fay

The purpose of this research is to assist the National Park Service (NPS), Southwest Alaska Network gain a better understanding of current visitor use volumes and patterns, develop a system to monitor visitor use over time, and use this information to evaluate the impact of visitors on the SW Network Park systems (Kenai Fjords National Park, Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, and Katmai/Aniakchak/Alagnak National Park and Preserve) as part of the NPS Vital Signs Monitoring program. Data about visitor use are important because of the driving force humans have on ecosystems. Not only are total numbers of visitors important in understanding overall usage of park resources, but understanding the trends in visitor use can aid managers in minimizing the impacts of humans on sensitive animals and ecosystems. This report provides information on the project protocols, databases, and visitation trends.
The Regional Economy of Southeast Alaska

Steve Colt, Ginny Fay, and Darcy Dugan

Southeast Alaska consists of all boroughs and census areas including and east of the Yakutat Borough. (An Alaska borough or census area is the geographic equivalent of a county in the lower 48 states.) The eight boroughs and census areas are listed in Table 1. The “Southeast Region” is one of six longstanding labor market regions defined by the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development. Following numerous other authors, we will refer to the Juneau City and Borough as “Juneau” and to the remaining seven census areas as “rural Southeast” or “rural Southeast Alaska.” This report provides a broad overview of the regional economy of Southeast Alaska, including trends over time for individual communities and boroughs. It also addresses several specific topics identified by the study team and the project sponsors. The main purpose is to add to the information and knowledge base available to help people make informed decisions. This knowledge base now includes several excellent and recent reports. These will be mentioned, cited, and briefly summarized, but not recapitulated at any length. Readers of this report are strongly encouraged to consult these other reports.
Updated Analysis of National Greenhouse Gas Control Legislation on Alaska Energy Prices and Consumer Costs

Steve Colt, Scott Goldsmith, and Peter Larsen

This memorandum is an update of a similar analysis that explores the possible economic effects on Alaska of proposed GHG control legislation. In this update we focus on a proposed bill that is similar to the “Bingaman-Specter Discussion Draft” that we discussed in March. The current proposal contains a $12/metric ton safety valve price ($12 refers to nominal dollars in year 2012) rather than a $7/metric ton price. Specifically, this analysis is based on a NEMS analysis provided to us by NCEP that is labeled $12 Safety Valve Case.” We shall refer to this proposal as “Bingaman-12.”
Renewable Power in Rural Alaska: Improved Opportunities for Economic Deployment

Peter Crimp, Steve Colt, and Mark Foster

Sharp increases in the price of distillate fuel have led to wider economic opportunities for local renewable energy resources in the over 180 rural Alaskan communities that are served by electrical microgrids isolated from larger population centers. Between 2002 and 2007 the median price of diesel fuel for utility power generation in rural Alaska increased by 72% to $0.71/l ($2.70/gal). During this period the median unsubsidized residential cost of power increased by 20% to $0.468/kWh. The Alaska Rural Energy Plan, based on 2002 fuel costs, indicated widespread opportunities for cost-saving measures from end use efficiency, diesel generation efficiency, diesel combined heat and power, and wind energy. This paper assesses economics of small hydroelectric, wind-diesel, and biomass-fired combined heat and power under a range of future oil price assumptions.
Survey of Living Conditions In The Arctic: What Did We Learn?

Gerard Duhaime, Kruse Jack, Birger Poppel, Larissa Abryutina, Virgene Hanna, Stephanie Martin, Marie Katherine Poppel, Ed Ward, Marg Kruse, Patricia Cochran, Carl Olsen, and Heather Meyers

In countries around the Arctic, tens of thousands of Iñupiat, Inuit, and other indigenous peoples live in small, isolated communities where jobs are scarce, incomes are low, and life is not easy. Yet many—including large majorities in Canada, Northern Alaska, and Greenland—are satisfied with life in their communities. That was the puzzle researchers from Statistics Greenland faced in 1994, when they studied living conditions and found that common measures of well-being—like levels of employment—didn’t explain why so many of Greenland’s Inuit chose to stay in their communities. About 7,250 Inuit, Iñupiat, and other indigenous peoples were interviewed in Greenland, Northern Alaska, the Chukotka region of Russia, and the Inuit settlement areas of Canada. The Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) conducted the survey in Alaska. This publication describes the survey and introduces the wealth of new information now available on the lives of the Arctic’s first people, measured in ways they themselves chose. Also printed in Valerie Moller, Denis Huschka and Alex Michalos (eds). Barometers of Quality of Life Around the Globe: How Are We Doing? New York: Springer Verlag, 107-134.
Behavioral Health Research and Services FAS Evaluation #38

Alexandra Edwards
No Health Insurance: How Do Alaskans Cope?

Rosyland Frazier and Virgene Hanna
Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport: Economic Significance 2007

Oliver Scott Goldsmith and Mary Killorin
The Remote Rural Economy of Alaska

Scott Goldsmith

Statewide descriptions of the Alaska economy are dominated by the much larger urban areas and cannot convey a sense of the unique features of the remote rural part of the state. And although there has been much written about the economy of remote Alaska, much of it is out of date or not well-grounded in the current economic realities of the region. Without a comprehensive description of the economy, discussions of economic development strategies are not possible. This description is a snapshot of the region as a whole, as distinct from the rest of Alaska. At the same time it recognizes the great variations in climate, terrain, culture, economic activity, opportunity, and well-being within the region. The description relies on published economic information about the region, which varies from good to sparse to non-existent, due to the vast size, small population, remote location, and complexity of the economic structure of the region. Consequently, the description is at best an approximation, constructed from all available published sources. No primary data collection was undertaken for this analysis.
University of Alaska Research: An Economic Enterprise (2007 Update)

Scott Goldsmith

Nearly $50 billion of the $312 billion of total U.S. research and development expenditures in 2004 (preliminary) consisted of university research. Excluding federally funded research and development centers administered by universities, like the Los Alamos National Laboratory, total research-related revenues of U.S. universities were $43 billion in FY 2004, continuing a positive trend stretching back at least to the early 1950s. The federal government is the largest source of funding for university research, accounting for 64 percent in 2004. Internal university funding (institutional funding) is next in order of importance, contributing 18 percent of the total. State and local governments account for nearly 7 percent, as does the category of other (including nonprofit organizations). Private industry is the smallest category of contributor, providing less than 5 percent. Total research and development spending (including not only academic but also government and private research) in Alaska in 2003, the most recent year for which complete information is available, was $321 million. Alaska ranked 48th among the states, consistent with the size of its economy, measured by gross state product. Academic research was a higher share of total research and development, as reflected by Alaska’s rank of 43rd among the states. This paper updates the June 2004 ISER analysis entitled The Economics of University Research.
How Much Might Climate Change Add to Future Costs for Public Infrastructure?

Scott Goldsmith, Peter Larsen, Orson Smith, Meghan Wilson, Ken Strzepek, Paul Chinowsky, Ben Saylor, Linda Leask, and Clemencia Merill

Scientists expect Alaska’s climate to get warmer in the coming years— and the changing climate could make it roughly 10% to 20% more expensive to build and maintain public infrastructure in Alaska between now and 2030 and 10% more expensive between now and 2080. These are the first estimates of how much climate change might add to future costs for public infrastructure in Alaska, and they are preliminary.
Viable Business Enterprises for Rural Alaska: What Works?

Sharman Haley, Ginny Fay, Jane Angvik, and Cami Woolam
Expanding Oil and Gas Activities on the North Slope of Alaska

Sharman Haley, Aslaug Mikkelsen, and Olaug Oygarden
Kids Count Alaska 2005

Virgene Hanna and Claudia Lampman

Over the past 15 years, Alaska’s children as a group have gotten older, more racially diverse, and more international. The total number of children in Alaska increased about 11% between 1990 and 2004, but the number of children ages 9 and younger dropped 8% and the number ages 10 to 18 rose 40%. During the same period, the number of children from minorities—the largest minority being Alaska Native—increased 75%, while the number from immigrant families was up nearly half. This year we show a snapshot of Alaska children in foster care. These are mostly children the state Office of Children’s Services (OCS) has taken, either temporarily or permanently, out of their parents’ homes—because the children were judged to be in “immediate” danger or their parents couldn’t be located. In some cases, parents voluntarily put their children into foster care, and in rare cases parents abandon children. The number of children in foster care varies throughout the year, as some children are returned to their parents’ custody and others come into the foster care system. Some are adopted and others age out of the system.
Report on the Anchorage School District's Alaska Native Pilot Project at Willow Crest Elementary and Romig Middle Schools 2006-2007

Diane Hirshberg, Alexandra Hill, Rosyland Frazier, and Meghan Wilson
Reindeer Markets in the Circumpolar North: An Economic Outlook

John Humphries

The commercial production of caribou and reindeer meat is relatively small; it is estimated that less than 175,000 animals are harvested annually. Reindeer husbandry or commercial caribou hunts occur in seven circumpolar countries: Canada, Finland, Greenland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States yet total production is still very low. Properly processed reindeer meat is seen as a high-end luxury or specialty meat in all those countries except Russia. In addition to hide, both male and female reindeer produce horns, which are valuable and can be sold for between 4 and 14 dollars per pound. Overall, reindeer herding and caribou hunting has had wildly varying levels of success, although they seem to be struggling across the globe. This paper provides an economic analysis of the reindeer industry, so we can better understand its challenges, successes, and structure, examine the total size and production of the market, and evaluate the socio-economic tradeoffs between subsistence and commercial harvests. This paper examines the reindeer markets in Canada, Finland, Greenland, Norway, Sweden, and Alaska, though most emphasis is placed on North America. Russia has been left out of this analysis, due to the scale and complexity of reindeer herding in Russia and the difficulty of obtaining information on the subject. The first part of this paper will estimate total global production and will examine international trade and price discrepancies. Then three forms of herding and two forms of hunting in commercial operations will be reviewed. The current market structures in North American countries will be examined next. The fourth part of this paper will examine the state of the industry and the factors that affect its production choices on a global level. Finally, the choice between subsistence and commercial production will be examined from an economic viewpoint.
2007 Alaska's Construction Spending Forecast

Mary Killorin and Scott Goldsmith

Uncertainty in the forecast for 2007 comes from several sources. The decline in the crude oil price in recent months may cause some firms working in the oil patch to re-evaluate their capital budget decisions and slow their rate of investment in exploration and development. All sectors of the industry are continuing to experience rapid increases in construction material costs that will undoubtedly cause some projects to be canceled or postponed, as has been the case in the last several years.
Globalization and Aquaculture: Challenges, Opportunities, and Questions for the Smoked Seafood Industry

Gunnar Knapp

The world economy is experiencing far-reaching changes that are collectively referred to as “globalization.” Among the causes and consequences of globalization are increasingly reliance on markets; reductions in trade barriers and expansion of trade; world economic integration in markets for resources, goods, services, labor, and capital; movement of production to low-cost producers; consolidation and integration resulting in larger and more powerful firms operating in many countries; technological revolutions in communications and transportation; growing consumer incomes in developed and developing countries; and increasing consumer expectations for lower prices, convenience, variety, and quality. The world seafood industry is changing rapidly. This paper describes some of the most important changes that are happening and suggests questions people in the smoked seafood industry should be thinking about in order to respond to these changes.
The Great Salmon Run: Competition Between Wild and Farmed Salmon

Gunnar Knapp, Cathy Roheim, and James Anderson

This report examines economic and policy issues related to wild and farmed salmon in North America. These issues have received a great deal of attention in recent years, reflecting the environmental, economic and cultural importance of salmon to Americans—and the fact that salmon issues span many important policy debates ranging from environmental protection to trade policy. The salmon industry has experienced dramatic change over the past two decades. Two major trends gave rise to many of the issues discussed in this report. The first trend is the rapid and sustained growth in world farmed salmon and salmon trout production, from two percent of world supply in 1980 to 65 percent of world supply in 2004. The growth of farmed salmon and the decline in the value of wild salmon has given rise to two broad sets of questions: • How has salmon farming affected wild salmon resources and the wild salmon industry? • What should be done to protect wild salmon resources and strengthen the wild salmon industry?"
An Arlon Tussing Sampler

Gunnar Knapp, John Tichotsky, and Steve Colt
Copper River Salmon Habitat Management Study

Marie Lowe

In 2006, Ecotrust commissioned the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at the University of Alaska Anchorage to conduct a study on land managers’ perceptions of salmon habitat management in the Copper River Watershed (CRW). ISER interviewed 20 managers from 10 organizations representing Federal agencies (BLM, USACE, USFS, USFWS), State of Alaska agencies (ADFG, DEC, DNR) and Alaska Native Corporations (AHTNA, EYAK). The study was conducted to examine managers’ perceptions about the current status of watershed management with regard to health of salmon populations. By interviewing resource managers, the research was conducted to determine threats to salmon habitat and to expose the most vulnerable geographic areas of the watershed, examine potential goals for long-term management, isolate the identities of key individuals who can influence the success of long-term management and enforcement of regulations, ascertain possible changes that could be made to current management plans, and identify the most effective political tools for effective management of salmon habitat within the watershed. The research was conducted to answer the following questions: 1. What are the economic, political and social impediments to the immediate and long-term effective management of wild salmon and their habitat from the perspective of fishery managers? 2. How can these impediments be mitigated in the future?
Economic and Social Impacts of BSAI Crab Rationalization on the Communities of King Cove, Akutan, and False Pass

Marie Lowe and Gunnar Knapp

This report examines economic and social impacts of the first two years of crab rationalization on the Aleutians East Borough communities of King Cove, Akutan and False Pass. The study was conducted by the University of Alaska Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) for the Aleutians East Borough (AEB) and the City of King Cove. Crab rationalization resulted in dramatic consolidation in Bering Sea crab fisheries. During the first two years of rationalization, consolidation reduced the number of boats participating in the Bristol Bay Red King Crab fishery and the Bering Sea Snow Crab fishery by about two-thirds. This consolidation in the fleet, and the corresponding reduction in crab fishing jobs and crab boat spending, was a major immediate short-term factor driving economic impacts on the three study communities to date. Longer-term concerns of community residents extend beyond these immediate economic impacts to many other issues. The report is based on a literature review, interviews conducted during visits to each study community, analysis of federal and state and local fisheries data and community data, and a household survey conducted by the City of King Cove. The primary focus of the study is on King Cove, because it is a larger community which has experienced greater effects of crab rationalization.