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Kenai National Wildlife Refuge: Economic Importance
Alexandra Hill and Scott Goldsmith
The Kenai National Wildlife Refuge contributes to the borough economy primarily through tourism and seafood industries. The refuge’s lakes, mountains and forests are home to abundant animals, birds and fish. They provide sport fishing and hunting opportunities as well as a variety of non-consumptive activities such as hiking, rafting and bird watching. The refuge also contains breeding and rearing habitat for substantial salmon populations that support sport fishing both on and off the refuge as well as commercial fishing in Cook Inlet. Assessing what portion of the impact of any activity is directly attributable to the refuge is difficult. A sport angler catching salmon in Hidden Lake (on the refuge) is enjoying a resource that depended not only on refuge habitat, but also on several years of marine habitat in the Gulf of Alaska. It’s not possible to say what fraction of the dollars the angler spends in the refuge are attributable to refuge resources and what fraction to marine resources. Likewise, commercial fishers in Cook Inlet are not fishing on the refuge, but many of the fish they catch were dependent on refuge resources for spawning and rearing habitat. Since there is no ‘correct’ allocation of economic activities that depend on both refuge and off refuge resources, we analyze two different sets of activities.
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Dividing Alaska, 1867-2000: Changing Land Ownership and Management
Teresa Hull and Linda Leask
When the U.S. bought Alaska in 1867, it acquired an area twice the size of the 13 original American colonies and three quarters as big as the Louisiana Purchase. This paper looks broadly at changing land ownership and management in Alaska from 1867 through today. For almost a century, the federal government gave up only a sliver of Alaska’s 375 million acres, mostly through homesteading and other land programs. But when Alaska became a state in 1959, Congress gave the new state rights to about 104 million acres. Then, in 1971, Congress settled Alaska Native land claims with a land grant of 44 million acres and payment of $1 billion. The last major division of Alaska lands came in 1980, when Congress added 104 million acres to national parks, wildlife refuges, and other conservation units.
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Interim Evaluation: PRAXIS Preparation and Professional Development Institute
Timothy Jester and G. Williamson McDiarmid
The primary goal of the PRAXIS Preparation and Professional Development Institute is to help Alaska Natives pass the PRAXIS exams required for teacher certification in the state. The goal of this evaluation is to provide information to the project staff on how well the Institute is achieving the goals for which it was designed. This report was prepared for the Cook Inlet Tribal Council and the Together Reaching Educational Excellence (TREE) Program.
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Changing Markets for Alaska Roe Herring
Terry Johnson and Gunnar Knapp
The Pacific herring fishery is one of Alaska’s most important commercial fisheries, with average annual landings during the 1990s of 47,100 tons, an average ex-vessel value of $28.9 million, and an average first wholesale value of $80.1 million. Although total landings have been relatively stable, ex-vessel prices and ex-vessel value are highly variable, and declined during the 1990s. This paper examines factors affecting the prices paid for Alaska herring.
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Ecology, Economics, Politics, and the Alaska Forest Industry
Gunnar Knapp
Ecology, economics, and politics together define and constrain opportunities for the Alaska forest products industry. Ecology limits potential timber harvest paths and non-timber benefits over time. One kind of ecological limit is the tradeoff between potential harvest levels over time. Another kind of ecological limit is the tradeoff between timber harvests and non-timber forest benefits such as fish and wildlife and scenery. The tradeoffs we make between ecologically possible levels of timber harvests over time and ecologically possible combinations of timber and non-timber benefits are political decisions. Ecology sets broad limits to possible Alaska timber harvest paths over time. But within these broad ecological limits are narrower political limits that reflect the choices we are willing to make about tradeoffs over time and tradeoffs between timber and non-timber benefits.
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The Wild Salmon Industry: Five Predictions for the Future
Gunnar Knapp
Given the rapid growth in world farmed salmon production, what is the future of wild salmon harvesting? This paper offers five predictions for the future of the wild-caught salmon industry: 1. Wild salmon harvests will continue to fluctuate from year to year due to natural causes. 2. Average wild salmon harvests will decline somewhat from levels of the 1990's due to a combination of natural environmental factors, human-related environmental factors, political factors, and economic factors. 3. Wild salmon will be sold increasingly in markets in which it can best compete with farmed salmon. These include higher-priced markets in which wild salmon competes based on "wild" attributes, lower-priced markets in which wild salmon competes based on price, and canned markets. 4. Wild salmon prices will be driven by farmed salmon prices and wild supply. The more directly wild salmon competes with farmed salmon, the more trends in wild salmon prices will reflect trends in farmed salmon prices. 5. Wild salmon will be harvested and processed more efficiently and the quality of wild salmon products will improve. These predictions are based on several stipulated assumptions concerning the farmed salmon industry.
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ISER Review 1997-2000
Linda Leask
The Institute of Social and Economic Research has studied public policy in Alaska since 1961. This review summarizes some of our recent research including Economic Projections for Alaska and the Southern Railbelt, 1999-2025 (Scott Goldsmith), : The Economic Significance of the Power Cost Equalization Program (Scott Goldsmith), Alcohol Related Homicide in Alaska Communities (Matthew Bennan, Teresa Hull, and Philip May), Seatbelt Use in Alaska (Virgene Hannah and Jack Kruse), Salmon Trap Profitability(Steve Colt), and changes inthe health, education, and safety of Alaska's children.
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Rural Sanitation Facilities Operation and Maintenance Demonstration Project - Final Project Report
Nina Miller and Joe Sarcone
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Supplemental To Analysis of Socio-Economic Aspects of Specified Year 2000 Redistricting Questions
Bradford Tuck
This material supplements a document prepared for the Alaska Redistricting Board in May 2001. This supplement discusses certain socio-economic linkages relative to the Final Plan and Proclamation of Redistricting, prepared by the Alaska Redistricting Board in June 2001. It relies on the same exonomic concepts and methodology used in the initial analysis, including central place theory and interindustry economics. It addresses four issues(1) the integration of the Delta area with the rest of House District 12; (2) the socio-economic integration of Valdez with the rest of the House District 32 and the Anchorage ares; 93) the socio-economic integration of House District 37; and (4) linkages between Cordova and the rest of House District 5.
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Oil Rents and Political Economy in Alaska
Matthew D. Berman
Oil and gas development has played a central role in the economic and political history of Alaska. This paper analyzes the evolution of fiscal relations between the petroleum industry and the State of Alaska s both landowner of the major oil fields and sovereign in a federal system. the analysis of the fiscal regime focuses on three dimensions: the state's take, its "distance" of administrative relation, and its "immunity" to oilfield financial risk. The paper finds that the state's distance from the industry has diminished steadily in its land management policies and fiscal dispute resolution practices over the past two decades, moving from primarily arms-length transactions-- lease auctions and litigation-- to negotiated terms and settlements. The state's willingness to share oil development risks increased markedly along with the government take in the early years of North Slope oil production, but then declined as the industry matured. That paper then explores the extend to which major economic trends might explain the pattern of change in the change in the state's administrative distance and financial immunity. Over the past 30 years, the state accumulated large savings in a Permanent Fund and reserve accounts, gradually becoming less financially dependent on current oil revenues. Neither the oil-price shifts nor financial exigencies appear to explain the pattern of change in the state's distance and immunity. Instead, the pattern appears to be explained more by the progress of industry in gaining support and influence among elected officials. The proposed BP-ARCO merger tests the limits of the new regime of state-industry accommodation.
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Endogenous On-Site Time in the Recreation Demand Model
Matthew D. Berman and Hong Jin Kim
Careful modeling of on-site time may substantially improve estimates of the benefits of recreational visits using the travel cost method, especially when on-site time in endogenous. This paper review the theory of endogenous on-site time, and shows how the theory may apply to the Random Utility Model (RUM). An empirical example of a two-level, nested-choice model of sport fishing in southcentral Alaska illustrates a discussion of the relative advantages of the different ways to specify endogenous onsite time. (JELQ26)
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Climate Change and Alaska's Forests: People, Problems, and Policies
Roger Burnside, Glenn Juday, and Matthew Berman
Forests cover over one-third of the total land area of Alaska, and forests border the communities in which about 90 percent of Alaska’s residents make their homes. Climate change has begun to affect the growth and condition of these forests (Juday et al. 1998). Plausible amounts of additional climate change would likely change both the extent and the character of Alaska’s forests (Juday et al. 1998). Alaska residents and public officials would face significant challenges in coping with hypothesized global change effects in its forests. Forest managers face the dilemma of being required to implement often irreversible plans that influence or even produce future forests and yet they must do so amid many uncertainties (Pollard 1991a). Many Alaska forests regenerated today will be experiencing the climate of the year 2100 and well beyond. This paper discusses potential human effects of climate change on Alaska’s forests. It begins with a summary of the role of forests in Alaska’s economy, including both commercial and ecosystem values contributed by forests. Next, the paper discusses human dimensions of potential climate effects on forests, focusing on what one needs to know to be able to turn projections of changes in forest ecosys- tems into flows of impacts to the human environment. Then, it analyzes climate-driven change specifically hypothesized for Alaska forest ecosystems, emphasizing those effects that are likely to have a significant effect on the regional economy and society. The final section summarizes the most important short-term and long-term regional impacts that emerge from the review of climate effects, and discusses the role of institutions and public policy in reducing costs or increasing benefits of the changes. The paper concludes that hypothesized climate changes on Alaska forests are likely to impose significant short-term costs to the economy and population, and that strategies for mitigating these harmful effects should be considered.
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Salmon Fish Traps in Alaska: An Economic History Perspective
Steve Colt
Salmon return faithfully to their stream of birth and can be efficiently caught by fixed gear. But since the introduction at the turn of the century of fish traps to the emerging Alaska commercial salmon fishery, most territorial residents fought for their abolition even while admitting to their technical efficiency. The new State of Alaska immediately banned traps in 1959. I estimate the economic rents generated by the Alaska salmon traps as they were actually deployed and find that they saved roughly $4 million (1967 dollars) per year, or about 12% of the ex-vessel value of the catch. I also find strong evidence that the fishermen operating from boats earned zero profits throughout the 20th century. Thus the State's ban on fish traps did allow 6,000 additional people to enter the fishery, but did nothing to boost average earnings.
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Simple Fiscal Outlook Model for Rural Alaska Communities
Steve Colt
The Northwest Arctic Borough (NAB) faces a growing population and increased demands for education and public services. At the request of the Assembly, I have prepared a fiscal planning model that can be used to explore what might happen to the Borough's revenues and expenses over the next 20 years. The model looks at both general government and the NAB School District (NABSD). The model allows us to ask "what if....?" questions and get quick answers about how things might change. These cases demonstrate that if the Borough issues new debt that is considered to be "in lieu" of existing cash contributions to the School District for deferred maintenance, then it can cause a large decrease in foundation funding to the School District and would require significant additional school budget cuts. (The case presented already assumes continual tightening of the instruction budget.) Obviously there are variations on the assumptions presented here for Case 3 (new bonds) that would improve the foundation funding amounts. However the overall picture that seems to emerge is that without a continuation of local revenues passed through to the School District, the new bonds are not fiscally sustainable.
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Kids Count Alaska 1998-1999
Norman Dinges, Claudia Lampman, and Shawna Ragan
How are Alaska’s children doing at the end of the twentieth century? Many are doing just fine—growing up healthy and safe. But others are not so fortunate. They live in poverty; they grow up without their fathers; they drop out of school; they have babies when they are children themselves. Too many—and even one is too many—die accidentally or intentionally. To help Alaska’s children, policymakers and others need reliable information about conditions affecting children. In the past decade or so, scientists have discovered that babies are born with the raw materials for brain development—about 100 million brain cells—but that most brain development happens after birth. What babies see, hear, touch, smell, and taste causes connections to form between brain cells. These connections are the wiring of the brain, allowing children to learn. Overall, scientists point out that we still have much to learn about the brain. But there is strong evidence about both the potential and the vulnerability of young children’s minds. To give children the best chance at life, adults must try to create safe, loving, interesting worlds for them.
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Achieving Alaska Native Self-Governance: Toward Implementation of the Alaska Natives Commission Report
Victor Fischer, Thomas Morehouse, Stephen Cornell, Jonathon Taylor, and Kenneth Grant
Renewed attention recently has been focused on Alaska’s Native communities. News accounts, government reports, and academic studies make it clear that Native communities continue to struggle with serious socioeconomic problems despite extensive federal and state programs designed to address them. The public debates arising out of the U. S. Supreme Court’s decision in the Venetie case, the formation of the governor’s Rural Governance Commission (not to mention previous commissions), and continuing subsistence conflicts highlight unresolved questions about what Native, state, and federal institutions should do to address the problems of village Alaska. Finally, the recent Alaska Inter-Tribal Council (AITC)-Rural Alaska Community Action Program (RurAL CAP) Conference of Tribes and the subsequent march, rally, and declaration illustrate continuing Native resolve to address the problems them- selves. Clearly there is consensus that Native problems need urgent attention, but there is less agreement on what is to be done. A central issue in this debate concerns Native self-governance. Can Native self-governance do a better job of dealing with Native problems than non- Native efforts have done? What should be the extent of such governance? What forms should it take? This report considers these and related questions. Please note that this version of the report differs from previous version in that it removes the authors recommendations, as this task is being taken on at the organizational level by the AFN.
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AFN Implementation Study: Proposals to the United States Congress to Implement Recommendations of the Alaska Natives Commission Pursuant To P.L. 104-270
Victor Fischer and Pete Spivey
The AFN Implementation Project is part of a continuum of reports highlighting the critical situation of Alaska Natives and proposing actions to address problems. Each report, each hearing, each resolution, each act is built on what came before and is a step toward resolving problems and meeting the aspirations of Alaska's Native peoples.The AFN process found that although most previously identified social, cultural, and economic problems persist, progress is being made. Innovations are coming about in areas of self-governance, education, delivery of health and other services, and other endeavors. Such progress has come about through both the efforts of Alaska Natives and the support provided by the Congress and federal agencies. Yet, social and economic needs remain tremendous, and it is toward meeting these that the AFN process has been directed. This report has a strict focus on recommendations. So as not to detract from this focus, we hold explanations to a minimum. Background and related research material are not presented here. They are available and will be marshaled as needed to back up and implement specific proposals.
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Alaska's Gross State Product, 1961-1998
Scott Goldsmith
Alaska gross state product declined by $.5 billion in 1997 and $3.5 billion in 1998 after 3 years of growth. Gross state product measured in current dollars is useful for comparing the contribution of different sectors to total gross state product at a particular point in time. However since Alaska gross state product is dominated by petroleum, and heavily influenced by the production of other commodities which fluctuate in price over time, both the size and composition of gross state product in current dollars can change substantially from year to year independent of the change in the overall level of economic activity as measured either by employment or payroll. Much of this fluctuation is the result of changes in the prices of a few commodities including oil, gas, zinc, and seafood.
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Safe Landing: Charting a Flight Path Through the Clouds
Scott Goldsmith
Everybody’s got an idea about where to find the roughly $1 billion we’ll need to balance the state budget every year from now on. It’s hard to evaluate these proposals, because the budget is complicated—and it’s hard to imagine how much $1 billion really is. This paper looks first at why some popular ideas can’t raise $1 billion a year, although they can certainly help. Then, in the foldout, we try to help Alaskans see through the clouds obscuring the “Safe Landing” strategy, which we first talked about in 1992. This strategy says that dealing with such a big deficit requires using a combination (and there are a number of possible combinations) of budget cuts, windfalls, Permanent Fund earnings, new taxes, and economic development.
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