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Population, Employment, and Income Projections for Alaska Census Areas
Scott Goldsmith
These projections have been prepared to accompany the statewide and regional projections prepared by ISER in March 1997 for the Alaska Department of Transportation. Those projections appeared in a report entitled Alaska's Economy and Population, 1959-2020. This document contains tabulated data with very little interpretive or contextual information. Please see the aforementioned report for these details.
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Expanding Job Opportunities for Alaska Natives (Interim Report)
Carl Hild, Suzanne Sharp, Mary Killorin, G. Williamson McDiarmid, and Scott Goldsmith
Alaska's Native people need more jobs. In 1994, the Alaska Natives Commission reported that "acute and chronic" unemployment throughout Alaska's Native communities was undermining Native society. The situation has not improved in the past several years, and it could worsen. The number of working-age Natives is growing much faster than the number of new jobs. Also, recent welfare reforms require welfare recipients to either get jobs or at least do some "work activity" which means that more Alaska Natives will be looking for work. The Alaska Federation of Natives wants to find ways of reducing the high unemployment among Alaska Natives. As part of that effort, it contracted with the Institute of Social and Economic Research at the University of Alaska Anchorage to describe current employment among Alaska Natives and to look for ways of expanding job opportunities. This is an interim report, and it has some limits. First, information on employment by race is hard to get and hard to verify. The best information on Alaska Native employment is from the 1990 federal census. We used that 1990 census information and other data to put together what we consider a reasonable picture of Native employment. Clearly the federal census in the year 2000 will supply more current information. Also, we had limited time and money to collect information on the many public and private programs targeting Native hire. We were not able to learn about all programs, and in some cases we had to rely on just one or two people to tell us about specific programs. Despite its limits, we hope this report can contribute to increasing job opportunities for Alaska Natives. Here we first summarize current Native employment and employment trends. Then we describe what seem to be promising approaches for increasing Native employment.
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Economic Assessment of Bristol Bay Area National Wildlife Refuges: Alaska Peninsula, Becharof, Izembek, Togiak
Alexandra Hill, Scott Goldsmith, and Teresa Hull
This report presents an economic assessment of the National Wildlife Refuges in Southwestern Alaska. Those refuges cover millions of acres on the Alaska Peninsula and along the north coast of Bristol Bay (Map S-1). They include large wilderness areas; spawning grounds for the rich Bristol Bay commercial salmon runs; staging areas for huge flocks of migrating waterfowl; and some of the world’s best brown bear habitat. Several thousand Alaska Natives and other rural Alaskans also live in communities on or near the refuges and rely on fish, wildlife, and plants from the refuges. The Institute of Social and Economic Research contracted with Industrial Economics, Incorporated to perform this economic assessment for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. It includes measures of both economic significance and net economic value. Both are useful for policy analysis, but they measure economic activity differently. Economic significance analysis measures the role of the refuges in the regional and statewide economies. Net economic value analysis measures the overall value of the refuges to Alaska, but also to the U.S. as a whole.
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Assessing the Consequences of Climate Change for Alaska and the Bering Sea
Gunnar Knapp
Marine fisheries are very vulnerable to climate change. Most of the research to date on the relationship between climate change and fisheries focuses specifically on how climate change may affect marine ecosystems and in turn abundance and harvests of specific marine species. This paper focuses on the human effects-economic, social and political effects-of climate-driven changes in Alaska commercial fisheries, and what can be done to mitigate these effects. Alaska commercial fisheries are the basis of a major industry of economic significance not only to Alaska but also the nation. In 1995, the ex-vessel value (the value received by fishermen) of Alaska landings exceeded $1.4 billion, while the first wholesale value (the value after processing in Alaska) was almost $3.0 billion. Climate change may have significant effects on Alaska fisheries. Climate change is likely to reduce the abundance of some species while increasing the abundance of others, with resulting reductions or increases in commercial harvests. For some species, significant changes in harvests may occur rapidly. How managers respond to climate change may either amplify or smooth out the effects of climate change on harvests. For a given species, climate change may cause harvests to increase in some parts of Alaska and decline in other parts of Alaska. For most species, we can't predict accurately how harvests in a given area may change, or when changes may occur. The farther we look into the future, the greater our uncertainty about potential changes in harvests. The history of commercial fishing in Alaska and elsewhere offers numerous examples of the economic and social consequences of climate change. These may include: Changes in harvests. Changes in regulations due to effects of climate on other species. Changes in fishing and processing employment. Changes in harvesting and processing costs. Changes in Prices. Changes in market share. Changes in fishing and processing income and profits. Changes in income and employment in fisheries support activities. Changes in local and statewide tax revenues. "Multiplier" effects of changes in fishing-related income. Changes in boat, gear, permit and IFQ (individual fishing quota) values. Changes in fisheries participation. Social stresses. Political conflict. Changes in costs and opportunities due to changes in weather and ice conditions. Costs of retooling. It is reasonable to assume that climate change could halve or double average harvests of any given species. This suggest that climate change could decrease or increase the total ex-vessel and wholesale value of Alaska harvests of some species by hundreds of millions dollars annually. The effects of global supply on markets for Alaska fish further complicate the task of assessing the potential effects of climate change on the Alaska fishing industry. It is not sufficient to understand only how fish harvests may be affected in Alaska. To understand potential climate-driven changes in markets, we would also need to understand how climate change might affect harvests of competing species in other parts of the world. For some regions of Alaska the economic effects of climate change may be highly favorable, for other regions the effects may be highly unfavorable. The fact that many of the economic benefits of Alaska fisheries accrue to non-resident fishermen, processing workers, and processing plant owners reduces the extent to which effects of climate change will be experienced in Alaska. Many of these effects will occur in the Pacific Northwest region. Potential long-term changes that could affect the significance of climate change for Alaska fisheries include: Changes in fish prices. Changes in technologies for fish harvesting and utilization. Changes in fisheries management. Changes in Alaska and American society. Potential strategies to mitigate the effects of climate-driven changes in Alaska fisheries include increasing attention to long-term forecasting and planning, and incorporating mechanisms for adjusting to harvest changes in management and political institutions.
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Salmon Industry: Twenty-seven Predictions for the Future
Gunnar Knapp
What does the future hold for the salmon industry? The past decade has brought dramatic change. What further changes might we expect in the coming decade, and beyond? This paper was prepared for submission to the Alaska Fisherman's Journal. It is a revised version of a paper prepared originally for a presentation to the Northwest Salmon Canners Association in October of 1997. I have offered a brief discussion of the reasoning underlying each prediction. A far more detailed discussion of the arguments for and against each prediction would be possible--and preferable--but space here does not permit that. A stronger case can be made for some predictions than for others. Keep in mind that these are not predictions for what will happen this year or next year, but rather for changes that are likely to occur gradually over the next decade and beyond.
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Local Caribou Availability
Gary Kofinas and Stephen Braund
The purpose of this document is to report findings of the NSF Arctic Community Sustainability Project’s research on community caribou availability to university-based investigators for development of the project's SYNTHESIS MODEL. Field work for the project was completed in Old Crow, Fort McPherson, Aklavik, and Arctic Village from April 1997 to April 1998 by Gary Kofinas (all communities) and Stephen R. Braund and Associates (Aklavik and Arctic Village) in collaboration with local research associates. The report provides a brief literature review on caribou movements and distribution patterns of the Porcupine caribou herd, local knowledge propositions about caribou movements and hunting patterns, mapped range-wide zones, and values for use in the modeling effort. The findings presented in this report are focused one part of that study -- the conditions affecting community caribou availability.
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Assessment of Rural Character of the Kenai Peninsula
Jack Kruse and Virgene Hanna
On January 3, 1991, over the objections of the Kenaitze Indian Tribe (see letter of December 19th, 1990), the Federal Subsistence Board declared an area encompassing the communities of Anchor Point, Clam Gulch, Cohoe, Crown Point ,Happy Valley, Homer city, Kalifonsky, Kasilof, Kenai city, Moose Pass, Nikiski, Primrose, Salamatof, Seward city, Soldotna city, and Sterling to be non-rural (see Map 1). This decision affects two-thirds of the population of the Kenai Peninsula (65 percent in 1990). Under this decision, over 26,000 residents of the Kenai Peninsula do not benefit from subsistence preferences which still apply to approximately 98 percent of the land area of the Kenai Peninsula. Included among these 26,000 residents are 58 percent of the Alaska Natives living on the Kenai Peninsula in 1990 (1,689 persons). In 1995, the Southcentral Regional Advisory Council recommended that the Federal Subsistence Board’s 1991 decision be reversed and the entire Kenai Peninsula be declared rural for subsistence purposes. The Native American Rights Fund commissioned the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) and specifically Jack Kruse, Director of ISER and Professor of Public Policy, to examine the question of whether a reversal of the Federal Subsistence Board’s decision is supportable on the basis of available information. This is a final report of findings prepared by Dr. Kruse with the assistance of Virgene Hanna, Research Associate at ISER.
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An Overview of Alaska's Natural Assets - Main Report and Research Summary
Eric Larson
Alaska’s natural assets kept Native people alive for centuries, drew fortune-hunters here in the 1800s, and sustain the modern economy. But what are all these “natural assets,” how abundant are they, and what is their value? The Alaska Conservation Alliance contracted with ISER to sketch the big picture of Alaska’s natural assets—ranging from spectacular scenery to huge petroleum and coal deposits to habitat for a big share of the world’s migrating waterfowl. This report is a broad overview of the abundance, status, and value of Alaska’s primary natural assets. These assets include all aspects of nature that provide some benefits, services, income, or value. These benefits include life support services such as water storage, regulation of the chemical composition of the atmosphere, and cycling nutrients through the food chain. The natural environment provides valuable raw materials such as oil, trees, and minerals that we make into products. We also relyon nature for fish, crops, livestock, and wild animals that we consume as food. Nature is also a valuable resource for non-consumptive use. For example, we enjoy outdoor recreation such as camping, hiking, picnicking, viewing wildlife, and skiing. These non-consumptive uses of nature enrich our lives and are the basis for much of the Alaska tourism industry.In Part II of this report we identify and describe major components of our natural assets. Because this is an overview, we take a broad look at many aspects of our natural assets and pass quickly across a lot of detail. In Part III of this report, we look more closely at why these assets are valuable and present methods to estimate the monetary value of selected natural assets.
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Methods and Approaches for Sustainable Development in Alaska
Eric Larson
Over the past ten years, sustainable development has been popularized by programs such as the President’s Council on Sustainable Development, the United Nation’s Agenda 21, and other sustainable development programs and initiatives in many countries, U.S. states and regions, and hundreds of American communities. These programs and initiatives have interpreted sustainability differently and tried different approaches and methods with varying success. We reviewed a selection of these programs to learn what methods and approaches have proven useful. In this report we summarize what we learned from our review and offer suggestions about how sustainable development could emerge in Alaska. In Part II of this report, we define what we mean by sustainable development and describe the major issues debated in sustainable development programs. In Part III, we identify several sustainable development approaches that may be applicable in Alaska.
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Current and Future Demand for Distance Education
Williamson McDiarmid, Alexandra Hill, Teresa Hull, and Scott Goldsmith
“Distance education” means education or training where the instructor is not in the same room with the students. It doesn’t necessarily mean, as the attached maps and figures show, that all students live far from campuses (although many do). In this summary we first highlight our findings and then list questions raised and recommendations made by provosts in Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Juneau after they reviewed a draft of this report. A third of distance education students in the Fall 1997 semester, for instance, lived in Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Juneau. Distance education courses are offered over television, through audio or video conferencing, by mail, over the Internet, and through combinations of those methods. During the Fall 1997 semester, 4,115 students in 178 Alaska locations (and a few places outside Alaska) were enrolled in 293 distance education courses offered through the University of Alaska. ISER also interviewed representatives of 33 organizations that operate primarily in rural Alaska—because in many remote places, distance education courses are among the few sources of postsecondary education and training available locally. We asked rural employers whether they were satisfied with current distance education offering and what kinds of job openings they foresaw.
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Basic Issues in Economic Comparisons of Commercial and Sport Fisheries: A Study of Allocation Alternatives for Alaska Kenai River Sockeye Salmon Fisheries
Mike Mills, Jeff Hartman, and Gunnar Knapp
Allocation between commercial and sport fisheries is becoming an increasingly difficult and divisive issue in fisheries management. As conflicts over allocation have increased, so has interest in the relative economic contributions of commercial and sport fisheries. This paper describes eight basic issues in economic comparisons of commercial and sport fisheries. These basic issues should be considered in evaluating or planning any economic comparison of commercial and sport fisheries--from a back-of-the-envelope comparison to a formal study. We illustrate these issues by describing how they arose in an economic comparison o f commercial and sport fisheries for Alaska's Kenai River sockeye salmon. Prepared for presentation at a session on "The Role of Economics in Fisheries Management" at the 1998 Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society Hartford, Connecticut August 24, 1998
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Northeast Asia: Outlook For Natural-Gas Sales and Independent Power Producers
Arlon Tussing and Ronald Ripple
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Long-Term Effects of Limiting Access to Alaska's Sablefish and Halibut Fisheries
Matthew Berman
The study analyzed potential long-term effects of the Alaska halibut and sablefish individual transferable quota (ITQ) program for the fishing fleet and coastal communities. The analysis focused on changes in the structure of the fleet, changes in fisheries markets, changes in fish processing and transportation, and regional shifts in the pattern of harvesting and processing activities. As a tool for projecting the combined effects of these major changes, two complementary models were developed: a fisheries impact model and a community impact model. Projections from these models for long-term scenarios of fish prices, total allowable catch by management area, and rate of inter-community quota transfers show that some communities could see large changes as a result of the program. The projected gains and losses are sensitive to assumptions about prices processors can pay in each community, suggesting a role for further research on evolving processing and transportation costs.
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Management of Incidental Catch of Crab, Halibut, Herring, and Salmon in the Groundfish Fisheries of Alaska
Matthew Berman
The project demonstrated a new approach to modeling incidental harvest (bycatch) of the North Pacific groundfish fleet using a spreadsheet-based optimization model. The approach models industry decision as the pursuit of profit-maximization by exploiting a mixed-stock common property fishery under total allowable catch regulation for both target species and incidental harvest. Trial simulations with a small-scale version of the model suggest that the approach realistically portrays the behavior of the fleet and the implication of bycatch management choices. An interactive user interface constructed for the model guides users through the assumptions and options of the model, making them transparent to the user.
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